Risk identification of residential energy demand: the case studies of Australia, Chile, the United Kingdom and the United States

ABSTRACT A wide range of residential sector energy models have been developed in recent years to determine energy demand and CO2 emissions and to evaluate energy saving policies. However, modelling outputs are subject to significant variations due to multiple sources of uncertainty, primarily stemming from input parameters and assumptions. This study aims to assess the transferability of the Transferable Energy Model (TREM) and quantify the prediction uncertainty of residential sector energy demand until 2030 in four case study countries (Australia, Chile, United Kingdom and the United States). TREM is able to determine the future annual energy demand in the residential sector according to the area of energy use (space heating, hot water provision, cooking, electrical appliances, lighting), whilst quantifying uncertainties in the results. Significant variations (between −12% and +63%) in residential energy demand in the year 2030 with respect to 2010 were found among the case study countries, suggesting that single total energy demand estimates are associated with considerable uncertainties. This paper also presents a comprehensive database of the range of possible variations in residential energy demand related to a wide range of energy saving measures in each case study country.