{"title":"通过SIR、SEIR和BSEIR数学模型分析土耳其结核病","authors":"Yasin Ucakan, S. Gulen, K. Koklu","doi":"10.1080/13873954.2021.1881560","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Since mathematical models play a key role in investigating the dynamics of infectious diseases, many mathematical models for these diseases are developed. In this paper, it is aimed to determine the dynamics of Tuberculosis (TB) in Turkey, how much it will affect the future and the impact of vaccine therapy on the disease. For this purpose, three mathematical models (SIR, SEIR and BSEIR) in the literature are considered for the case of Turkey. The model parameters are obtained with TB reported data from 2005 to 2015 by using the least square method. The obtained results revealed that the basic reproduction ratio for all three models is less than 1. Moreover, the stability analysis of the models and sensitivity analysis of the model parameters are presented and discussed. Finally, the accuracy of results for all three models is compared and the effect of the vaccination rate is discussed.","PeriodicalId":49871,"journal":{"name":"Mathematical and Computer Modelling of Dynamical Systems","volume":"27 1","pages":"179 - 202"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8000,"publicationDate":"2021-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/13873954.2021.1881560","citationCount":"10","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Analysing of Tuberculosis in Turkey through SIR, SEIR and BSEIR Mathematical Models\",\"authors\":\"Yasin Ucakan, S. Gulen, K. Koklu\",\"doi\":\"10.1080/13873954.2021.1881560\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"ABSTRACT Since mathematical models play a key role in investigating the dynamics of infectious diseases, many mathematical models for these diseases are developed. In this paper, it is aimed to determine the dynamics of Tuberculosis (TB) in Turkey, how much it will affect the future and the impact of vaccine therapy on the disease. For this purpose, three mathematical models (SIR, SEIR and BSEIR) in the literature are considered for the case of Turkey. The model parameters are obtained with TB reported data from 2005 to 2015 by using the least square method. The obtained results revealed that the basic reproduction ratio for all three models is less than 1. Moreover, the stability analysis of the models and sensitivity analysis of the model parameters are presented and discussed. Finally, the accuracy of results for all three models is compared and the effect of the vaccination rate is discussed.\",\"PeriodicalId\":49871,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Mathematical and Computer Modelling of Dynamical Systems\",\"volume\":\"27 1\",\"pages\":\"179 - 202\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":1.8000,\"publicationDate\":\"2021-01-02\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/13873954.2021.1881560\",\"citationCount\":\"10\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Mathematical and Computer Modelling of Dynamical Systems\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"100\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1080/13873954.2021.1881560\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"数学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q3\",\"JCRName\":\"COMPUTER SCIENCE, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Mathematical and Computer Modelling of Dynamical Systems","FirstCategoryId":"100","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1080/13873954.2021.1881560","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"COMPUTER SCIENCE, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS","Score":null,"Total":0}
Analysing of Tuberculosis in Turkey through SIR, SEIR and BSEIR Mathematical Models
ABSTRACT Since mathematical models play a key role in investigating the dynamics of infectious diseases, many mathematical models for these diseases are developed. In this paper, it is aimed to determine the dynamics of Tuberculosis (TB) in Turkey, how much it will affect the future and the impact of vaccine therapy on the disease. For this purpose, three mathematical models (SIR, SEIR and BSEIR) in the literature are considered for the case of Turkey. The model parameters are obtained with TB reported data from 2005 to 2015 by using the least square method. The obtained results revealed that the basic reproduction ratio for all three models is less than 1. Moreover, the stability analysis of the models and sensitivity analysis of the model parameters are presented and discussed. Finally, the accuracy of results for all three models is compared and the effect of the vaccination rate is discussed.
期刊介绍：
Mathematical and Computer Modelling of Dynamical Systems (MCMDS) publishes high quality international research that presents new ideas and approaches in the derivation, simplification, and validation of models and sub-models of relevance to complex (real-world) dynamical systems.
The journal brings together engineers and scientists working in different areas of application and/or theory where researchers can learn about recent developments across engineering, environmental systems, and biotechnology amongst other fields. As MCMDS covers a wide range of application areas, papers aim to be accessible to readers who are not necessarily experts in the specific area of application.
MCMDS welcomes original articles on a range of topics including:
-methods of modelling and simulation-
automation of modelling-
qualitative and modular modelling-
data-based and learning-based modelling-
uncertainties and the effects of modelling errors on system performance-
application of modelling to complex real-world systems.
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