央行的透明度会抑制汇率波动吗?亚洲新兴市场的新证据

IF 1.7 Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice Pub Date : 2023-05-01 DOI:10.2478/jcbtp-2023-0017
Muhammad Aftab, Ahsan Mehmood
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引用次数: 1

摘要

自实行自由化进程以来,汇率波动已成为亚洲新兴市场面临的重大挑战。本研究以十个重要的亚洲新兴市场为样本,考察了央行透明度对汇率波动的影响。本研究采用固定效应回归模型,涵盖亚洲金融危机、全球金融危机、银行危机和缩减恐慌事件。结果表明,央行透明度的提高对汇率波动具有稳定作用,即使在控制了各种内外部因素后,这种作用仍然存在。美国货币政策的不确定性增加了汇率的波动性,而美国经济政策的不确定性仅在全球金融危机期间起作用。有趣的是,央行透明度缓冲了全球金融危机的影响,表明它在维护金融稳定方面发挥了促进作用。研究央行透明度在抑制汇率波动方面的作用(这是这些市场的一个关键问题)的研究,在新兴市场的背景下很少见。本研究通过使用各种鲁棒性检查提供了有趣的发现。
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Does Central Bank Transparency Deter the Exchange Rate Volatility? New Evidence from Asian Emerging Markets
Abstract Exchange rate volatility has emerged as a significant challenge for Asian emerging markets since the adoption of the liberalization process. This study examines the influence of central bank transparency on exchange rate volatility using a sample of ten important Asian emerging markets. The study uses a fixed effect regression model covering the Asian financial crisis, global financial crisis, banking crisis, and taper tantrum episodes. Results show that an increase in central bank transparency has a stabilizing effect on exchange rate volatility, and this effect remains even after controlling for various internal and external factors. The uncertainty of US monetary policy increases exchange rate volatility, while US economic policy uncertainty contributes only during the global financial crisis. Interestingly, central bank transparency buffers the effects of the global financial crisis, indicating that it plays a facilitating role in maintaining financial stability. Studies that examine the role of central bank transparency in curbing exchange rate volatility, which is a crucial issue in these markets, are rare in emerging markets’ context. This research offers interesting findings by using a variety of robustness checks.
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来源期刊
CiteScore
2.80
自引率
57.10%
发文量
31
审稿时长
7 weeks
期刊介绍: Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice is a scientific journal dedicated to publishing quality papers and disseminating original, relevant and applicable economic research. Scientific and professional papers that are published in the Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice cover theoretical and practical aspects of central banking, monetary policy, including the supervision issues, as well as banking and management in central banks. The purpose of the journal is to educate the general public about the key issues that the central bankers globally face, as well as about contemporary research and achievements in the field of central banking theory and practice.
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