This paper provides an overview of the distributed ledger technology (DLT) options available to central banks for issuing central bank digital currency (CBDC). We discuss the main requirements that a DLT solution must fulfill and analyze the various structures for implementation offered by DLT — public, permissioned and private — and the implications that each has for the central bank and the existing financial system. While a CBDC built on an open, permissionless system would provide the full functionality offered by DLT, it is also far more disruptive to the existing financial system and consequently requires more new infrastructure on the part of the central bank.
{"title":"DLT Options for CBDC1","authors":"Sky Guo, Joseph Kreitem, Thomas Moser","doi":"10.2478/jcbtp-2024-0004","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/jcbtp-2024-0004","url":null,"abstract":"This paper provides an overview of the distributed ledger technology (DLT) options available to central banks for issuing central bank digital currency (CBDC). We discuss the main requirements that a DLT solution must fulfill and analyze the various structures for implementation offered by DLT — public, permissioned and private — and the implications that each has for the central bank and the existing financial system. While a CBDC built on an open, permissionless system would provide the full functionality offered by DLT, it is also far more disruptive to the existing financial system and consequently requires more new infrastructure on the part of the central bank.","PeriodicalId":44101,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2024-01-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139464066","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has announced it will refrain from profit distribution in 2022 owing to the accumulation of a huge financial loss. In this paper we examine key determinants of the SNB’s loss and shed light on its implications to monetary policy pursuit. In particular, we show that different accounting principles yield different results concerning the equity position of a central bank’s balance sheet, yet not affecting the ability to run monetary policy.
{"title":"Swiss National Bank: Is the Recent Loss a Threat to Monetary Policy? A Research Note1","authors":"Vanessa Kämpf, Georg Stadtmann, Lilli Zimmermann","doi":"10.2478/jcbtp-2024-0003","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/jcbtp-2024-0003","url":null,"abstract":"The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has announced it will refrain from profit distribution in 2022 owing to the accumulation of a huge financial loss. In this paper we examine key determinants of the SNB’s loss and shed light on its implications to monetary policy pursuit. In particular, we show that different accounting principles yield different results concerning the equity position of a central bank’s balance sheet, yet not affecting the ability to run monetary policy.","PeriodicalId":44101,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2024-01-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139464068","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Damià Rey Miró, Pedro Piffaut, Ricardo Palomo Zurdo
Abstract The research work presented below addresses the possible concern of central bank independence through the development and application of econometric models. The complexity of the modelling has allowed a step further in corroborating that financial independence is not only linked to the appointments and pressures of the states regarding their economic policy but also the role that financial markets play by acting as a force that dictates and contaminates decisions of central banks. In this sense, the paper proposes a theoretical basis for recommendations on the application of the new monetary policy in a more complex environment, both due to the pandemic that was sweeping the world and the bulky debt that countries are carrying. The paper concludes with a series of measures and suggestions that could be addressed by monetary policymakers given the necessary but not easy normalization of monetary policy required at the global level.
{"title":"Do Financial Markets Allow the Independence of Central Banks?","authors":"Damià Rey Miró, Pedro Piffaut, Ricardo Palomo Zurdo","doi":"10.2478/jcbtp-2024-0001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/jcbtp-2024-0001","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The research work presented below addresses the possible concern of central bank independence through the development and application of econometric models. The complexity of the modelling has allowed a step further in corroborating that financial independence is not only linked to the appointments and pressures of the states regarding their economic policy but also the role that financial markets play by acting as a force that dictates and contaminates decisions of central banks. In this sense, the paper proposes a theoretical basis for recommendations on the application of the new monetary policy in a more complex environment, both due to the pandemic that was sweeping the world and the bulky debt that countries are carrying. The paper concludes with a series of measures and suggestions that could be addressed by monetary policymakers given the necessary but not easy normalization of monetary policy required at the global level.","PeriodicalId":44101,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139454475","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract The banking sector assumes a pivotal role in the economic development of nations. The assessment of financial indicators pertaining to banks holds fundamental importance in the evaluation of bank stability and sustainability. This research employs the MEREC (Method based on the Removal Effects of Criteria) and MARCOS (Measurement of Alternatives and Ranking according to COmpromise Solution) methodologies to delve deeper into the financial landscape of the banking sector in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH). Specifically, the objective is to rank banks according to their financial indicators, utilizing financial data from the year 2022. The MEREC method is applied to gauge the significance of financial indicators and ascertain their respective weights, while the MARCOS method is employed to rank banks within BiH based on their financial indicators. The examination of financial indicators within the BiH banking sector, facilitated by the MEREC and MARCOS methodologies, yields a more comprehensive understanding of the sector’s present condition. Limitations of this research, which primarily stem from its reliance on available financial data and predefined methodologies, lies within limited consideration for external factors. To provide a broader contextual perspective, the inclusion of additional financial indicators and comparative analyses with banking sectors of other nations would be imperative. The findings of this research reveal that Raiffeisen Bank exhibits the most favourable financial indicators and demonstrates the highest level of efficiency within this context. Consequently, this research offers insights into identifying exemplary banks that can serve as models for enhancing the performance of others.
{"title":"Assessing the Banking Sector of Bosnia and Herzegovina: An Analysis of Financial Indicators through the MEREC and MARCOS Methods","authors":"Zoran Mastilo, Anđelka Štilić, Dejan Gligović, Adis Puška","doi":"10.2478/jcbtp-2024-0008","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/jcbtp-2024-0008","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The banking sector assumes a pivotal role in the economic development of nations. The assessment of financial indicators pertaining to banks holds fundamental importance in the evaluation of bank stability and sustainability. This research employs the MEREC (Method based on the Removal Effects of Criteria) and MARCOS (Measurement of Alternatives and Ranking according to COmpromise Solution) methodologies to delve deeper into the financial landscape of the banking sector in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH). Specifically, the objective is to rank banks according to their financial indicators, utilizing financial data from the year 2022. The MEREC method is applied to gauge the significance of financial indicators and ascertain their respective weights, while the MARCOS method is employed to rank banks within BiH based on their financial indicators. The examination of financial indicators within the BiH banking sector, facilitated by the MEREC and MARCOS methodologies, yields a more comprehensive understanding of the sector’s present condition. Limitations of this research, which primarily stem from its reliance on available financial data and predefined methodologies, lies within limited consideration for external factors. To provide a broader contextual perspective, the inclusion of additional financial indicators and comparative analyses with banking sectors of other nations would be imperative. The findings of this research reveal that Raiffeisen Bank exhibits the most favourable financial indicators and demonstrates the highest level of efficiency within this context. Consequently, this research offers insights into identifying exemplary banks that can serve as models for enhancing the performance of others.","PeriodicalId":44101,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139456226","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract The global financial crisis and the coronavirus pandemic were marked by expansionary policies of key central banks in an attempt to stop the recession. The degree of expansiveness of monetary policy was unprecedented. As a result of expansionary policies, global inflation has been present since 2021. The change in the macroeconomic environment has led to a turnaround in monetary policy pursuits and a rapid rise in reference interest rates. The FED reacted much faster than the ECB and that is why inflation was lower in the USA compared to the euro area. All announcements for 2023 point to the continuation of contractionary policies. The subject of the paper’s analysis is the monetary policy of key central banks, as well as expectations for the next period. The paper raises the question of whether central banks have gone from one extreme of overly expansionary monetary policy to the other extreme of overly contractionary monetary policy and whether such policies carry the risk of reoccurrence of recession. The paper also contains recommendations for improving existing monetary policy regimes, as well as for creating a completely new monetary policy regime which will be based on two nominal anchors.
{"title":"Monetary Policy Between Stability and Growth","authors":"Nikola Fabris","doi":"10.2478/jcbtp-2024-0002","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/jcbtp-2024-0002","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The global financial crisis and the coronavirus pandemic were marked by expansionary policies of key central banks in an attempt to stop the recession. The degree of expansiveness of monetary policy was unprecedented. As a result of expansionary policies, global inflation has been present since 2021. The change in the macroeconomic environment has led to a turnaround in monetary policy pursuits and a rapid rise in reference interest rates. The FED reacted much faster than the ECB and that is why inflation was lower in the USA compared to the euro area. All announcements for 2023 point to the continuation of contractionary policies. The subject of the paper’s analysis is the monetary policy of key central banks, as well as expectations for the next period. The paper raises the question of whether central banks have gone from one extreme of overly expansionary monetary policy to the other extreme of overly contractionary monetary policy and whether such policies carry the risk of reoccurrence of recession. The paper also contains recommendations for improving existing monetary policy regimes, as well as for creating a completely new monetary policy regime which will be based on two nominal anchors.","PeriodicalId":44101,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139457985","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract In the conditions of modern business environment of energy companies, studies of their impact on environmental protection are becoming increasingly important. The growing concern at the macro level of the resulting climate change due to energy production is justified. The ecological component in the business of energy entities is becoming a priority for the sustainable development of energy, and therefore must be thoroughly examined. The focus of this paper is to determine the impact of energy on climate change through the emission of Greenhouse Gases on the example of the Republic of Serbia. The paper also examines the long-term interdependence between key economic and energy indicators at the national level. The IPAT/Kaya identity was used for research purposes and three alternative scenarios of energy development in Serbia until year 2050 were developed. The obtained results point to different possibilities for the development of energy and its impact on climate. The importance of promoting renewable energy sources for environmental protection and overall economic stability is also pointed out through proposed alternative scenarios. Significant results were obtained for the predicted level of energy intensity for the observed period, suggesting how the development of energy in Serbia could affect economic stability until 2050.
{"title":"The Impact of Energy on Climate and Economic Stability: Forecast for Serbia","authors":"Nemanja Backović, Miomir Jakšić, Bojan Ilić","doi":"10.2478/jcbtp-2024-0009","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/jcbtp-2024-0009","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract In the conditions of modern business environment of energy companies, studies of their impact on environmental protection are becoming increasingly important. The growing concern at the macro level of the resulting climate change due to energy production is justified. The ecological component in the business of energy entities is becoming a priority for the sustainable development of energy, and therefore must be thoroughly examined. The focus of this paper is to determine the impact of energy on climate change through the emission of Greenhouse Gases on the example of the Republic of Serbia. The paper also examines the long-term interdependence between key economic and energy indicators at the national level. The IPAT/Kaya identity was used for research purposes and three alternative scenarios of energy development in Serbia until year 2050 were developed. The obtained results point to different possibilities for the development of energy and its impact on climate. The importance of promoting renewable energy sources for environmental protection and overall economic stability is also pointed out through proposed alternative scenarios. Significant results were obtained for the predicted level of energy intensity for the observed period, suggesting how the development of energy in Serbia could affect economic stability until 2050.","PeriodicalId":44101,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139457236","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract This paper analyzes the impact on income inequality of a set of variables usually considered in the growth literature as potential growth determinants. There is evidence to suggest that unemployment and inflation are positively associated with income inequality; except for countries with central bank independence where a negative association exists between inflation and income inequality. The empirical evidence shows that income inequality increases when unemployment increases.
{"title":"A Refinement of the Relationship Between Central Bank Independence, Inflation, and Income Inequality in Developing Countries","authors":"Fadi Fawaz, Masha Rahnamamoghadam","doi":"10.2478/jcbtp-2024-0006","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/jcbtp-2024-0006","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This paper analyzes the impact on income inequality of a set of variables usually considered in the growth literature as potential growth determinants. There is evidence to suggest that unemployment and inflation are positively associated with income inequality; except for countries with central bank independence where a negative association exists between inflation and income inequality. The empirical evidence shows that income inequality increases when unemployment increases.","PeriodicalId":44101,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139457455","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract This study aims to examine the effects of monetary policies implemented by developed countries and central bank independence of developing countries on the financial fragility of developing countries. According to the findings, it was seen that the contractionary monetary policies implemented by the central banks of developed countries increase the financial fragility for both groups of countries, as do the change of central bank governors. However, the change in governors strengthens positive effects of contractionary monetary policies on the financial fragility.
{"title":"Financial Fragility in Developing Countries: An Analysis in the Context of Monetary Policy and Central Bank Independence","authors":"Bengü Tosun, Selim Başar","doi":"10.2478/jcbtp-2024-0005","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/jcbtp-2024-0005","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This study aims to examine the effects of monetary policies implemented by developed countries and central bank independence of developing countries on the financial fragility of developing countries. According to the findings, it was seen that the contractionary monetary policies implemented by the central banks of developed countries increase the financial fragility for both groups of countries, as do the change of central bank governors. However, the change in governors strengthens positive effects of contractionary monetary policies on the financial fragility.","PeriodicalId":44101,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139454622","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Piotr Szczerba, Anna Wojtyniak, Joanna Niedźwiedzińska, Wojciech Bogdanowicz
Abstract This paper describes the process of constructing a dataset of available online press releases related to monetary policy decisions published by central banks that have been pursuing a form of inflation targeting. A total of 3,807 documents were considered, as the review encompasses 24 central banks over the past 30 years. To prepare the dataset for text-mining analysis, a cleaning procedure has been performed, which is also presented in detail. The next step was to look at the readability of the documents in order to detect any patterns in its changes. We find that while there is a significant variation between central banks, there is no clear time trend in the readability of the monetary policy press releases, i.e. some central banks tend to have easier-to-read press releases than others, and this does not change with time. In turn, there is a weak indication that following the Global Financial Crisis outbreak and the European Sovereign Debt Crisis apogee, as well as at the time of withdrawing unconventional measures introduced in response to those two emergencies, press releases of advanced economy inflation targeters got temporarily harder-to-read. Overall, this paper can be viewed as a first attempt towards assessing qualitatively central banks’ transparency, with respect to a flagship communication tool of inflation targeters, namely their monetary policy press releases.
{"title":"Monetary Policy Press Releases of 24 Inflation Targeting Central Banks – A Comparison of their Key Features and Complexity","authors":"Piotr Szczerba, Anna Wojtyniak, Joanna Niedźwiedzińska, Wojciech Bogdanowicz","doi":"10.2478/jcbtp-2024-0010","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/jcbtp-2024-0010","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This paper describes the process of constructing a dataset of available online press releases related to monetary policy decisions published by central banks that have been pursuing a form of inflation targeting. A total of 3,807 documents were considered, as the review encompasses 24 central banks over the past 30 years. To prepare the dataset for text-mining analysis, a cleaning procedure has been performed, which is also presented in detail. The next step was to look at the readability of the documents in order to detect any patterns in its changes. We find that while there is a significant variation between central banks, there is no clear time trend in the readability of the monetary policy press releases, i.e. some central banks tend to have easier-to-read press releases than others, and this does not change with time. In turn, there is a weak indication that following the Global Financial Crisis outbreak and the European Sovereign Debt Crisis apogee, as well as at the time of withdrawing unconventional measures introduced in response to those two emergencies, press releases of advanced economy inflation targeters got temporarily harder-to-read. Overall, this paper can be viewed as a first attempt towards assessing qualitatively central banks’ transparency, with respect to a flagship communication tool of inflation targeters, namely their monetary policy press releases.","PeriodicalId":44101,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139455542","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract We identify some factors limiting CBDC adoption and some of the possible solutions. We also assess the media sentiment about central bank digital currencies in general as well as about locally issued CBDCs. We find that there is a high correlation between the negative media sentiment about CBDCs in general and locally issued CBDCs. We also find that the negative media sentiment about the eNaira, DCash and Sand Dollar was caused by the existing negative media sentiment about CBDCs in general. However, a positive media sentiment about the eNaira, DCash and Sand Dollar was not caused by the existing positive media sentiment about CBDC in general.
{"title":"Central Bank Digital Currency Adoption Challenges, Solutions, and a Sentiment Analysis","authors":"Peterson K. Ozili, Sergio Luis Náñez Alonso","doi":"10.2478/jcbtp-2024-0007","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/jcbtp-2024-0007","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract We identify some factors limiting CBDC adoption and some of the possible solutions. We also assess the media sentiment about central bank digital currencies in general as well as about locally issued CBDCs. We find that there is a high correlation between the negative media sentiment about CBDCs in general and locally issued CBDCs. We also find that the negative media sentiment about the eNaira, DCash and Sand Dollar was caused by the existing negative media sentiment about CBDCs in general. However, a positive media sentiment about the eNaira, DCash and Sand Dollar was not caused by the existing positive media sentiment about CBDC in general.","PeriodicalId":44101,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139454190","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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