理智与情感：用一个模型检验公立学前教育名额与生育率之间的关系

IF 1.3 4区社会学 Q3 MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Journal of Mathematical Sociology Pub Date : 2019-03-05 DOI:10.1080/0022250X.2019.1583226

M. Sanz, Vicente Díaz Gandasegui, Begoña Elizalde-San Miguel

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引用次数: 1

摘要

摘要本文建立了一个随机动态数学模型，其中引入家庭政策指数(Family Policy Index, XFPI)来衡量和比较两种不同的资源提供模式对0 - 3岁儿童家庭的支持。该模型的主要变量是XFPI、生育率、死亡率、移出率和迁入率。2007年至2015年期间，这一数学模型在西班牙和挪威两个不同的国家得到了验证。采用敏感性分析模拟未来趋势(2016-2030年)，研究提供公共学前服务(0至3年)对(XISF)的影响。所获得的结果表明，只要这些服务得到广泛发展，它们确实可能对生育率产生影响。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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Sense and sensibility: using a model to examine the relationship between public pre-school places and fertility

ABSTRACT This paper presents a stochastic dynamic mathematical model, in which a Family Policy Index (XFPI) is included to measure and compare two different models of provision of resources to support families with children from 0 to 3 years old. The main variables in this model are the XFPI, fertility, mortality, emigration and immigration rates. This mathematical model was validated in two different countries, Spain and Norway, during the 2007–2015 period. A sensitivity analysis was applied to simulate the future trend (2016–2030), examining the influence of providing public pre-school services (0 to 3 years) on (XISF). The results obtained show that these services may indeed have an influence on fertility rates, as long as they are developed extensively.

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来源期刊

Journal of Mathematical Sociology 数学-数学跨学科应用

CiteScore

2.90

自引率

10.00%

发文量

审稿时长

>12 weeks

期刊介绍： The goal of the Journal of Mathematical Sociology is to publish models and mathematical techniques that would likely be useful to professional sociologists. The Journal also welcomes papers of mutual interest to social scientists and other social and behavioral scientists, as well as papers by non-social scientists that may encourage fruitful connections between sociology and other disciplines. Reviews of new or developing areas of mathematics and mathematical modeling that may have significant applications in sociology will also be considered. The Journal of Mathematical Sociology is published in association with the International Network for Social Network Analysis, the Japanese Association for Mathematical Sociology, the Mathematical Sociology Section of the American Sociological Association, and the Methodology Section of the American Sociological Association.