INFLATION DIFFERENTIALS AMONG EUROPEAN MONETARY UNION COUNTRIES: AN EMPIRICAL EVALUATION WITH STRUCTURAL BREAKS

Inflation rates and their convergence within Euro area have been a major concern, since well before the advent of the single currency. Inflation differentials are a normal phenomenon in any monetary union and even in long-established monetary unions. The aim of this research is to examine the main factors of inflation differentials in the Euro-zone for the period 1999–2018. Our empirical estimates appear to suggest that a one-percentage-point increase in the positive output gap typically leads to an increase of about 20 basis points in the inflation rate of EMU countries. We also find three structural breaks, in 2004, 2008 and in 2010. Since the monetary policy of the European Central Bank is geared at maintaining low and stable inflation, the productivity growth should be increased, and the real effective exchange rates should be decreased and become more homogeneous among EMU. Therefore, countries’ inflation differentials may become less persistent.