白金虫在欧洲哪里?建模当前和未来的潜在分布

IF 3.8 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION Neobiota Pub Date : 2023-06-12 DOI:10.3897/neobiota.85.96687
Sérgio J.M. Rodrigues-Filho, Fabrício dos Santos Lobato, Carlos Henrique Medeiros de Abreu, M. Rebelo
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引用次数: 0

摘要

黄粉蝶(Wiedemann,1819)是一种飞蝇(直翅目,丽蝇科),历史上分布在整个南欧,最近分散到欧洲较冷的地区,这是一个有趣的现象。在这项工作中,我们使用Maxent软件,使用机器学习技术来制定气候适宜性,以调查这一事实。最能解释气候适宜性的生物气候变量是年平均温度(67.7%)和年温度范围(21.4%)。我们发现白冰藻在气候上适合欧洲的几个地区,除了瑞士阿尔卑斯山等高海拔地区。在葡萄牙、西班牙和意大利等温暖的国家,整个沿海地区最适合该物种。未来的情景模型显示,在这些东部国家和一些北部地区,气候适宜性有所提高。当比较当前模型和未来情景模型在气候适宜性方面的收益和损失时,这种增长得到了加强。这些变化很可能是由温度的变化引起的,温度是测试变量中气候适宜性的主要解释因素。作为法医学背景下最重要的物种之一和潜在的蝇蛆病病原体,白念珠菌向新地点的扩张不容忽视,必须仔细监测其扩张。
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Where in Europe is Chrysomya albiceps? Modelling present and future potential distributions
Chrysomya albiceps (Wiedemann, 1819), a species of blowfly (Diptera, Calliphoridae), historically distributed throughout Southern Europe, has recently dispersed to cooler regions in Europe, which is an intriguing phenomenon. In this work, we used Maxent software to formulate climate suitability using a machine learning technique to investigate this fact. The bioclimatic variables that best explained the climate suitability were Annual Mean Temperature (67.7%) and Temperature Annual Range (21.4%). We found that C. albiceps is climatically suitable for several parts of Europe, except for high altitude areas like the Swiss Alps. In warmer countries such as Portugal, Spain and Italy, the entire coastal territory was the most suitable for the species. Future scenario models show that in these eastern countries and some northern areas, climate suitability has increased. This increase is reinforced when comparing the gains and losses in climate suitability between the present-day model and the future scenario models. These changes are most likely caused by changes in temperature, which is the main explanatory factor among the tested variables, for the climate suitability. As one of the most important species in forensic contexts and a potential myiasis agent, the expansion of C. albiceps to new locations cannot be neglected, and its expansion must be carefully monitored.
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来源期刊
Neobiota
Neobiota Agricultural and Biological Sciences-Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics
CiteScore
8.10
自引率
7.80%
发文量
0
审稿时长
6 weeks
期刊介绍: NeoBiota is a peer-reviewed, open-access, rapid online journal launched to accelerate research on alien species and biological invasions: aquatic and terrestrial, animals, plants, fungi and micro-organisms. The journal NeoBiota is a continuation of the former NEOBIOTA publication series; for volumes 1-8 see http://www.oekosys.tu-berlin.de/menue/neobiota All articles are published immediately upon editorial approval. All published papers can be freely copied, downloaded, printed and distributed at no charge for the reader. Authors are thus encouraged to post the pdf files of published papers on their homepages or elsewhere to expedite distribution. There is no charge for color.
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