Sérgio J.M. Rodrigues-Filho, Fabrício dos Santos Lobato, Carlos Henrique Medeiros de Abreu, M. Rebelo
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Where in Europe is Chrysomya albiceps? Modelling present and future potential distributions
Chrysomya albiceps (Wiedemann, 1819), a species of blowfly (Diptera, Calliphoridae), historically distributed throughout Southern Europe, has recently dispersed to cooler regions in Europe, which is an intriguing phenomenon. In this work, we used Maxent software to formulate climate suitability using a machine learning technique to investigate this fact. The bioclimatic variables that best explained the climate suitability were Annual Mean Temperature (67.7%) and Temperature Annual Range (21.4%). We found that C. albiceps is climatically suitable for several parts of Europe, except for high altitude areas like the Swiss Alps. In warmer countries such as Portugal, Spain and Italy, the entire coastal territory was the most suitable for the species. Future scenario models show that in these eastern countries and some northern areas, climate suitability has increased. This increase is reinforced when comparing the gains and losses in climate suitability between the present-day model and the future scenario models. These changes are most likely caused by changes in temperature, which is the main explanatory factor among the tested variables, for the climate suitability. As one of the most important species in forensic contexts and a potential myiasis agent, the expansion of C. albiceps to new locations cannot be neglected, and its expansion must be carefully monitored.
NeobiotaAgricultural and Biological Sciences-Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics
CiteScore
8.10
自引率
7.80%
发文量
0
审稿时长
6 weeks
期刊介绍:
NeoBiota is a peer-reviewed, open-access, rapid online journal launched to accelerate research on alien species and biological invasions: aquatic and terrestrial, animals, plants, fungi and micro-organisms.
The journal NeoBiota is a continuation of the former NEOBIOTA publication series; for volumes 1-8 see http://www.oekosys.tu-berlin.de/menue/neobiota
All articles are published immediately upon editorial approval. All published papers can be freely copied, downloaded, printed and distributed at no charge for the reader. Authors are thus encouraged to post the pdf files of published papers on their homepages or elsewhere to expedite distribution. There is no charge for color.