为什么民主政体能够幸存

IF 4.3 1区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Journal of Democracy Pub Date : 2022-10-01 DOI:10.1353/jod.2022.0052
Jason Brownlee, Kenny Miao
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引用次数: 0

摘要

摘要:专家们担心,以前的多党制国家(俄罗斯、土耳其、委内瑞拉)的事实上的单人政权和现有民主国家(巴西、匈牙利、美国)的无视规范标志着威权时代的到来。然而,如果不研究更广泛的记录,就很难知道这种震动是否预示着全球动荡。一个世纪的证据(1920-2019)表明,当代民主国家比看起来更强大。最重要的是,高水平的经济发展继续维持着多党制;经合组织民主国家面临的风险比通常暗示的要小。此外,政党之间的竞争,无论国家富裕程度如何,都包含着一种即使是最任性的煽动者也难以阻止的势头。这些经济和制度壁垒有助于解释为什么民主倒退——这似乎是一个预兆——往往先于民主生存而非崩溃。即使行政扩张和充满敌意的党派之争搅乱了世界上最受尊敬的民主国家,如果没有宽松的物质条件,它们也不太可能产生新的独裁政权。
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Why Democracies Survive
Abstract:Experts worry that de facto single-person regimes in previous multiparty states (Russia, Turkey, Venezuela) and norm-defiance in existing democracies (Brazil, Hungary, the United States) signal a coming authoritarian age. Without examining the broader record, however, it is hard to know whether such tremors presage a global convulsion. A century's worth of evidence (1920–2019) shows that contemporary democracies are sturdier than they look. Above all, high levels of economic development continue to sustain multipartism; OECD democracies have faced less risk than often intimated. Further, competition among political parties, regardless of national affluence, contains a momentum that even the most willful demagogues have had trouble stopping. These economic and institutional bulwarks help explain why democratic backsliding, which seems so portentous, has preceded democratic survival more often than breakdown. Even as executive aggrandizement and rancorous partisanship roil the world's most venerable democracies, they are unlikely to produce new autocracies absent permissive material conditions.
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来源期刊
Journal of Democracy
Journal of Democracy POLITICAL SCIENCE-
CiteScore
6.30
自引率
6.50%
发文量
60
期刊介绍: Since its inception in 1990, the Journal of Democracy has become an influential international forum for scholarly analysis and competing democratic viewpoints. Its articles have been cited in The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal and widely reprinted in many languages. Focusing exclusively on democracy, the Journal monitors and analyzes democratic regimes and movements in scores of countries around the world. Each issue features a unique blend of scholarly analysis, reports from democratic activists, updates on news and elections, and reviews of important recent books.
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