Pub Date : 2024-07-01DOI: 10.1353/jod.2024.a930427
Viridiana Ríos
Abstract:This essay contests the narrative of democratic regression in Mexico, arguing instead that Mexico's democracy demonstrates exceptional resilience. Although there have been concerns about intolerance to criticism, centralization of power, and control of independent institutions during President Andrés Manuel López Obrador's time in office (2018–2024), Mexico's democratic foundations have remained solid. Mexico's resilience is evident in its ability to conduct mostly free and fair elections, the acceptance of electoral losses by its political actors, the country's general freedom of speech and association, and the safeguarding of liberal institutions despite polarization and misinformation. This article also explains the reasons behind the victory of Claudia Sheinbaum, the first female president of Mexico, and describes factors that may reduce the likelihood of democratic erosion (a stronger opposition, internal party fragmentation, diminished populist charisma, and institutional constraints) or increase it (organized crime, militarization, and pervasive social injustices) during her presidency (2024–2030).
{"title":"Why Mexico Is Not on the Brink","authors":"Viridiana Ríos","doi":"10.1353/jod.2024.a930427","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/jod.2024.a930427","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract:This essay contests the narrative of democratic regression in Mexico, arguing instead that Mexico's democracy demonstrates exceptional resilience. Although there have been concerns about intolerance to criticism, centralization of power, and control of independent institutions during President Andrés Manuel López Obrador's time in office (2018–2024), Mexico's democratic foundations have remained solid. Mexico's resilience is evident in its ability to conduct mostly free and fair elections, the acceptance of electoral losses by its political actors, the country's general freedom of speech and association, and the safeguarding of liberal institutions despite polarization and misinformation. This article also explains the reasons behind the victory of Claudia Sheinbaum, the first female president of Mexico, and describes factors that may reduce the likelihood of democratic erosion (a stronger opposition, internal party fragmentation, diminished populist charisma, and institutional constraints) or increase it (organized crime, militarization, and pervasive social injustices) during her presidency (2024–2030).","PeriodicalId":48227,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Democracy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2024-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141698545","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-07-01DOI: 10.1353/jod.2024.a930423
Adam Przeworski
Abstract:What is "democratic" depends on the values one attaches to democracy. The distinction that determines the answer is between minimalist and maximalist conceptions of democracy. Defending democracy requires a positive, forward-looking program of reform.
{"title":"Who Decides What Is Democratic?","authors":"Adam Przeworski","doi":"10.1353/jod.2024.a930423","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/jod.2024.a930423","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract:What is \"democratic\" depends on the values one attaches to democracy. The distinction that determines the answer is between minimalist and maximalist conceptions of democracy. Defending democracy requires a positive, forward-looking program of reform.","PeriodicalId":48227,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Democracy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2024-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141710639","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-07-01DOI: 10.1353/jod.2024.a930430
Zoe Marks
Abstract:In the twenty-first century, African countries have hosted more mass movements than any other region in the world. In the last decade, one in every three nonviolent revolutionary campaigns has taken place in Africa. The region also has the highest short-term success rate for people power. But is this success predicated on the mobilizational force of "protest democracy" to hold elites accountable? Or are African social movements' remarkable successes an environmental artefact, the result of ordinary protests in contexts of extraordinary instability? The evidence suggests that African social movements are uniquely effective and that political and military elites are increasingly trying to harness their power. Ordinary people—marshalled in massive demonstrations and persistent civil society organizing—have played a necessary, often decisive role in agitating for democracy. However, eliciting successful breakthroughs requires the alignment of protester demands with the abandonment of the status quo by elite blocs. Recent cascades of irregular power transfers in African politics illustrate these distinctive dynamics, where diverse domestic political contexts share an important common ingredient: the combination of mass movements pushing for change and military power players who are willing to help them.
{"title":"African Popular Protest and Political Change","authors":"Zoe Marks","doi":"10.1353/jod.2024.a930430","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/jod.2024.a930430","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract:In the twenty-first century, African countries have hosted more mass movements than any other region in the world. In the last decade, one in every three nonviolent revolutionary campaigns has taken place in Africa. The region also has the highest short-term success rate for people power. But is this success predicated on the mobilizational force of \"protest democracy\" to hold elites accountable? Or are African social movements' remarkable successes an environmental artefact, the result of ordinary protests in contexts of extraordinary instability? The evidence suggests that African social movements are uniquely effective and that political and military elites are increasingly trying to harness their power. Ordinary people—marshalled in massive demonstrations and persistent civil society organizing—have played a necessary, often decisive role in agitating for democracy. However, eliciting successful breakthroughs requires the alignment of protester demands with the abandonment of the status quo by elite blocs. Recent cascades of irregular power transfers in African politics illustrate these distinctive dynamics, where diverse domestic political contexts share an important common ingredient: the combination of mass movements pushing for change and military power players who are willing to help them.","PeriodicalId":48227,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Democracy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2024-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141705053","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-07-01DOI: 10.1353/jod.2024.a930433
James Loxton
Abstract:Hereditary democracy is the phenomenon whereby the children, spouses, or other close family members of powerful politicians are themselves elected to high office. It is a ubiquitous feature of democracy worldwide. What causes it? What are its consequences? To explain hereditary democracy, the article develops a framework that looks at both supply- and demand-side factors, with respect to both the voting masses and party elites, that contribute to an inherited incumbency advantage. The article argues that the practice of hereditary democracy should be condemned. While it has helped women leaders to reach high office in unlikely places, it artificially shrinks the pool of political talent, can lead to disappointed voter expectations, and is fundamentally unfair.
{"title":"Hereditary Democracy","authors":"James Loxton","doi":"10.1353/jod.2024.a930433","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/jod.2024.a930433","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract:Hereditary democracy is the phenomenon whereby the children, spouses, or other close family members of powerful politicians are themselves elected to high office. It is a ubiquitous feature of democracy worldwide. What causes it? What are its consequences? To explain hereditary democracy, the article develops a framework that looks at both supply- and demand-side factors, with respect to both the voting masses and party elites, that contribute to an inherited incumbency advantage. The article argues that the practice of hereditary democracy should be condemned. While it has helped women leaders to reach high office in unlikely places, it artificially shrinks the pool of political talent, can lead to disappointed voter expectations, and is fundamentally unfair.","PeriodicalId":48227,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Democracy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2024-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141710503","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-07-01DOI: 10.1353/jod.2024.a930424
Michael Ignatieff
Abstract:Democratic self-rule is an unending argument about what democracy is. In normal times, democracy reproduces its legitimacy by its routine operation. In times of political crisis, however, the defining issue of an election can become the commitment of adversaries to the rules of the democratic game. At such times, polarization can become lethal to the very system that both sides say they are committed to maintaining. All democracies could use serious institutional reform, but we will not begin unless we abandon the illusion that democracy's problems would be solved if we could just defeat authoritarian populists at the ballot box. It is our institutions, not just the players, that need changing.
{"title":"When Democracy Is on the Ballot","authors":"Michael Ignatieff","doi":"10.1353/jod.2024.a930424","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/jod.2024.a930424","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract:Democratic self-rule is an unending argument about what democracy is. In normal times, democracy reproduces its legitimacy by its routine operation. In times of political crisis, however, the defining issue of an election can become the commitment of adversaries to the rules of the democratic game. At such times, polarization can become lethal to the very system that both sides say they are committed to maintaining. All democracies could use serious institutional reform, but we will not begin unless we abandon the illusion that democracy's problems would be solved if we could just defeat authoritarian populists at the ballot box. It is our institutions, not just the players, that need changing.","PeriodicalId":48227,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Democracy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2024-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141692709","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-07-01DOI: 10.1353/jod.2024.a930425
Thomas Carothers, Brendan Hartnett
Abstract:One of the most common explanations of the ongoing wave of global democratic backsliding is that democracies are failing to deliver adequate socioeconomic goods to their citizens, leading voters to forsake democracy and embrace antidemocratic politicians who undermine democracy once elected. Yet a close look at twelve important cases of recent backsliding casts doubt on this thesis, finding that while it has some explanatory power in some cases, it has little in others, and even where it applies, it requires nuanced interpretation. Backsliding is less a result of democracies failing to deliver than of democracies failing to constrain the predatory political ambitions and methods of certain elected leaders. Policymakers and aid providers seeking to limit backsliding should tailor their diplomatic and aid interventions accordingly.
{"title":"Misunderstanding Democratic Backsliding","authors":"Thomas Carothers, Brendan Hartnett","doi":"10.1353/jod.2024.a930425","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/jod.2024.a930425","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract:One of the most common explanations of the ongoing wave of global democratic backsliding is that democracies are failing to deliver adequate socioeconomic goods to their citizens, leading voters to forsake democracy and embrace antidemocratic politicians who undermine democracy once elected. Yet a close look at twelve important cases of recent backsliding casts doubt on this thesis, finding that while it has some explanatory power in some cases, it has little in others, and even where it applies, it requires nuanced interpretation. Backsliding is less a result of democracies failing to deliver than of democracies failing to constrain the predatory political ambitions and methods of certain elected leaders. Policymakers and aid providers seeking to limit backsliding should tailor their diplomatic and aid interventions accordingly.","PeriodicalId":48227,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Democracy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2024-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141692435","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract:The historical bond between democracy and LGBT+ rights is unraveling globally. With gender and sexuality issues gaining political prominence, anti-LGBT+ forces are exploiting democratic institutions—both majoritarian and nonmajoritarian—to successfully curtail LGBT+ rights. Can democracy still protect and advance LGBT+ rights? This essay contends that as recent empirical developments challenge the longstanding connection between democracy and LGBT+ rights, they also call for a conceptual reassessment. Rather than viewing LGBT+ rights as an outcome of democracy, this essay proposes treating them as constitutive of democracy, particularly in its liberal form. It further offers normative as well as pragmatic justifications for this conceptual shift.
{"title":"Is Democracy Bad for Lgbt+ Rights?","authors":"Kristopher Velasco, Siddhartha Baral, Yun (Nancy) Tang","doi":"10.1353/jod.2024.a930432","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/jod.2024.a930432","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract:The historical bond between democracy and LGBT+ rights is unraveling globally. With gender and sexuality issues gaining political prominence, anti-LGBT+ forces are exploiting democratic institutions—both majoritarian and nonmajoritarian—to successfully curtail LGBT+ rights. Can democracy still protect and advance LGBT+ rights? This essay contends that as recent empirical developments challenge the longstanding connection between democracy and LGBT+ rights, they also call for a conceptual reassessment. Rather than viewing LGBT+ rights as an outcome of democracy, this essay proposes treating them as constitutive of democracy, particularly in its liberal form. It further offers normative as well as pragmatic justifications for this conceptual shift.","PeriodicalId":48227,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Democracy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2024-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141699621","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-07-01DOI: 10.1353/jod.2024.a930428
Adeel Malik, Maya Tudor
Abstract:Pakistan's 2024 elections delivered a shocking surprise. Imran Khan's PTI won the largest number of seats amid heavy state repression. With this result, well-worn political patterns—whereby military favor virtually guaranteed a party's electoral success—were upended. This essay argues that Pakistan's 2024 election is not a "black swan" event but instead signals a coming crisis of governability that grows out of three structural changes: the rise of an aspirational middle class, the erosion of traditional authority patterns, and an intensifying economic and climate crisis. Consequently, a historic loss of military legitimacy is unlikely to abate in years ahead.
{"title":"Pakistan's Coming Crisis","authors":"Adeel Malik, Maya Tudor","doi":"10.1353/jod.2024.a930428","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/jod.2024.a930428","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract:Pakistan's 2024 elections delivered a shocking surprise. Imran Khan's PTI won the largest number of seats amid heavy state repression. With this result, well-worn political patterns—whereby military favor virtually guaranteed a party's electoral success—were upended. This essay argues that Pakistan's 2024 election is not a \"black swan\" event but instead signals a coming crisis of governability that grows out of three structural changes: the rise of an aspirational middle class, the erosion of traditional authority patterns, and an intensifying economic and climate crisis. Consequently, a historic loss of military legitimacy is unlikely to abate in years ahead.","PeriodicalId":48227,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Democracy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2024-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141694262","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-07-01DOI: 10.1353/jod.2024.a930434
David Karpf
{"title":"Democracy After Truth","authors":"David Karpf","doi":"10.1353/jod.2024.a930434","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/jod.2024.a930434","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48227,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Democracy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2024-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141695869","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-07-01DOI: 10.1353/jod.2024.a930429
Manuel Meléndez‐Sánchez, Alberto Vergara
Abstract:Decades of mano dura—or "iron fist"—experiments in Latin America suggest that hard-on-crime policies are likely to fail. Yet in El Salvador, a crackdown launched by President Nayib Bukele in 2022 successfully dismantled the country's gangs, turning "the Bukele model" into one of the most influential political brands in the region. This essay argues that this crackdown succeeded not only because of its intensity, but also because of the (unintended) consequences of a pact between the gangs and the Bukele government. As ongoing crackdowns in Honduras and Ecuador suggest, efforts to emulate the Bukele model are likely to fail—and come at a high cost for democracy, security, and human rights.
{"title":"The Bukele Model: Will It Spread?","authors":"Manuel Meléndez‐Sánchez, Alberto Vergara","doi":"10.1353/jod.2024.a930429","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/jod.2024.a930429","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract:Decades of mano dura—or \"iron fist\"—experiments in Latin America suggest that hard-on-crime policies are likely to fail. Yet in El Salvador, a crackdown launched by President Nayib Bukele in 2022 successfully dismantled the country's gangs, turning \"the Bukele model\" into one of the most influential political brands in the region. This essay argues that this crackdown succeeded not only because of its intensity, but also because of the (unintended) consequences of a pact between the gangs and the Bukele government. As ongoing crackdowns in Honduras and Ecuador suggest, efforts to emulate the Bukele model are likely to fail—and come at a high cost for democracy, security, and human rights.","PeriodicalId":48227,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Democracy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2024-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141692509","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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