基于启发式算法的运输公司车辆任务分配风险管理

Q2 Engineering Archives of Transport Pub Date : 2023-09-30 DOI:10.5604/01.3001.0053.7463
M. Izdebski
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引用次数: 0

摘要

这项工作涉及将车辆分配给运输公司执行任务的问题,同时考虑到在执行指定运输任务的车辆路线上发生危险事件的风险最小化。所提出的基于启发式算法的风险管理程序将风险降至最低。蚂蚁算法在超过极限的情况下会减少它,这与传统的风险管理方法不同,后者只用于风险评估。已经为风险管理开发了一个决策模型。决策模型考虑了将车辆分配给任务的经典模型的典型限制,例如窗口限制,并且还包含对车辆行驶路线上可接受风险的限制。标准函数使整个分配路线上发生事故的概率最小化。根据已知的理论分布确定了车辆路线上发生危险事件的概率。分布的随机变量被定义为车辆在给定路线点出现的时刻。理论概率分布是根据使用STATISTICA13软件包的经验数据确定的。决策模型考虑了任务完成时间和可接受风险限制等约束。标准函数使车辆路线中发生危险事件的概率最小化。蚂蚁算法已经在准确的输入数据上得到了验证。所提出的蚂蚁算法在评估分配车辆执行任务的不良事件风险方面有95%的有效性。该算法运行了100次。在测量点底部,将指定路线与事故发生的实际时间进行了比较。PTV Visum软件中显示了结果的图形解释。对算法的验证证实了算法的有效性。该工作介绍了算法的构建过程及其校准。
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Risk management in the allocation of vehicles to tasks in transport companies using a heuristic algorithm
The work deals with the issue of assigning vehicles to tasks in transport companies, taking into account the minimization of the risk of dangerous events on the route of vehicles performing the assigned transport tasks. The proposed risk management procedure based on a heuristic algorithm reduces the risk to a minimum. The ant algorithm reduces it in the event of exceeding the limit, which differs from the classic methods of risk management, which are dedicated only to risk assessment. A decision model has been developed for risk management. The decision model considers the limitations typical of the classic model of assigning vehicles to tasks, e.g. window limits and additionally contains limitations on the acceptable risk on the route of vehicles' travel. The criterion function minimizes the probability of an accident occurring along the entire assignment route. The probability of the occurrence of dangerous events on the routes of vehicles was determined based on known theoretical distributions. The random variable of the distributions was defined as the moment of the vehicle's appearance at a given route point. Theoretical probability distributions were determined based on empirical data using the STATISTICA 13 package. The decision model takes into account such constraints as the time of task completion and limiting the acceptable risk. The criterion function minimizes the probability of dangerous events occurring in the routes of vehicles. The ant algorithm has been validated on accurate input data. The proposed ant algorithm was 95% effective in assessing the risk of adverse events in assigning vehicles to tasks. The algorithm was run 100 times. The designated routes were compared with the actual hours of the accident at the bottom of the measurement points. The graphical interpretation of the results is shown in the PTV Visum software. Verification of the algorithm confirmed its effectiveness. The work presents the process of building the algorithm along with its calibration.
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来源期刊
Archives of Transport
Archives of Transport Engineering-Automotive Engineering
CiteScore
2.50
自引率
0.00%
发文量
26
审稿时长
24 weeks
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