Good seed makes a good crop? The relationship between civil society and post-independence democracy levels

ABSTRACT The impact of civil society on democracy is contested. Some argue that Civil Society Organizations (CSOs) are important ‘schools of democracy’ and may foster democratic consolidation. Others emphasize that anti-democratic CSOs may undermine democracy. This debate is particularly relevant in the context of newly independent states. At that critical juncture, both democratic and authoritarian regime trajectories are possible. Societal preconditions – such as the state of civil society – can therefore be particularly relevant for the way forward. To what extent does the nature of CSOs prior to independence has an impact on the subsequent level of democracy? We argue that the existence of democratic CSOs prior to independence strengthens post-independence democracy whereas non-democratic CSOs have a detrimental effect. For the first time, this argument is empirically tested, using Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) data on 91 cases of independence since 1905. The empirical results demonstrate that the presence of democratic CSOs prior to independence is positively correlated, whereas non-democratic CSOs are negatively correlated to democracy levels following independence.