Jaguar (Panthera onca) population density and landscape connectivity in a deforestation hotspot: The Paraguayan Dry Chaco as a case study

The distribution of the jaguar has decreased by approximately 50% with its conservation highly dependent upon its persistence and mobility in anthropogenic landscapes. Consequently, understanding the effects of land use on jaguar populations and their connectivity is a necessary precursor for effective conservation of the species. We simultaneously estimated jaguar density and landscape connectivity in the ranching landscape of the Dry Chaco of western Paraguay, a deforestation hotspot, as a function of proportional forest area using spatial capture-recapture modeling. Using camera trap sampling at four sites along a deforestation gradient of 17%–51% area deforested, we estimated densities of 0.44–1.6 individuals/100 km², whereby densities and connectivity from the more deforested sites were significantly lower than those from the less deforested sites. Our results warrant concern for the long-term viability of jaguar in the Paraguayan Dry Chaco, highlighting the need for the effective implementation of existing national laws and management plans for the conservation of the jaguar and its habitat. Furthermore, we showed the importance of accounting for landscape heterogeneity typical of anthropogenic landscapes in the conservation of the jaguar, suggesting results from protected areas may be generating unrepresentative inferences for jaguars in general, while indicating the need to place a greater research emphasis on anthropogenic landscapes to meet range-wide conservation goals for the jaguar.