Assessing consumer valuations of future costs versus purchase prices in Japan's auto market

To tax vehicles such that market distortions are minimized and environmental goals are promoted, policymakers must determine whether consumers correctly assess automobile prices versus future costs of ownership. Drawing from data spanning 2006 to 2015 for Japan's new car market, we apply the aggregate random coefficients logit model to estimate consumer demand with rich substitution patterns. We find that Japanese consumers primarily focused on fuel costs and future registration taxes followed by vehicle purchase prices. This finding implies that promoting eco-friendly vehicles requires Japanese policymakers' attention to fuel and vehicle registration taxes. This finding also suggests that salient features of preferential tax treatment in the auto market distort consumer preferences toward future costs. Counterfactual experiments under a fixed amount of tax revenue reveal that raising fuel taxes improves average fuel economy more than registration taxes do at the expense of broader social welfare.