Pub Date : 2026-01-30DOI: 10.1016/j.ecotra.2026.100448
Carl Berry , Maria Börjesson
We estimate the income and fuel price elasticities of household vehicle kilometres travelled (VKT) and car ownership. To model the VKT, we apply a discrete-continuous model on registrAy micro panel data, covering all Swedish households from 1999 to 2018. We model two joint choices: car ownership and VKT conditional on car ownership, where the elasticity of VKT from these two choices are obtained by using the Two-Part model. We account for unobserved household effects using a correlated random effects specification and take household adjustments into account by including lagged values of fuel prices and income. Our preferred model yields a long-run income elasticity of 0.45 for private VKT, where close to two-thirds of the effect comes from the income elasticity of car ownership. The long-run fuel price elasticity of private VKT is −1.03, with the response in VKT among car owners being larger than the response in car ownership.
{"title":"Are the rich reaching saturation: Income and fuel price elasticities of car ownership and use","authors":"Carl Berry , Maria Börjesson","doi":"10.1016/j.ecotra.2026.100448","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecotra.2026.100448","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We estimate the income and fuel price elasticities of household vehicle kilometres travelled (VKT) and car ownership. To model the VKT, we apply a discrete-continuous model on registrAy micro panel data, covering all Swedish households from 1999 to 2018. We model two joint choices: car ownership and VKT conditional on car ownership, where the elasticity of VKT from these two choices are obtained by using the Two-Part model. We account for unobserved household effects using a correlated random effects specification and take household adjustments into account by including lagged values of fuel prices and income. Our preferred model yields a long-run income elasticity of 0.45 for private VKT, where close to two-thirds of the effect comes from the income elasticity of car ownership. The long-run fuel price elasticity of private VKT is −1.03, with the response in VKT among car owners being larger than the response in car ownership.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":45761,"journal":{"name":"Economics of Transportation","volume":"45 ","pages":"Article 100448"},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2026-01-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146080336","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-20DOI: 10.1016/j.ecotra.2026.100447
Philippe Bontems , Marie-Françoise Calmette , David Martimort
Motivated by the forthcoming terminations of most highways concessions in France, we propose a versatile model of dynamic regulation and contract renewals that describes a long-term relationship between the public authority and an incumbent operator with private information about its costs that may face potential entrants. We discuss various issues including the nature of discriminatory biases towards entrants, their consequences on investments, the public or private nature of the management of concessions, the role of the operator’s financial constraints, the consequences of allotments. So doing, we isolate a few principles that should guide policy-makers when deciding upon concession renewals.
{"title":"Highway to sell: How to renew concessions if you want it","authors":"Philippe Bontems , Marie-Françoise Calmette , David Martimort","doi":"10.1016/j.ecotra.2026.100447","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecotra.2026.100447","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Motivated by the forthcoming terminations of most highways concessions in France, we propose a versatile model of dynamic regulation and contract renewals that describes a long-term relationship between the public authority and an incumbent operator with private information about its costs that may face potential entrants. We discuss various issues including the nature of discriminatory biases towards entrants, their consequences on investments, the public or private nature of the management of concessions, the role of the operator’s financial constraints, the consequences of allotments. So doing, we isolate a few principles that should guide policy-makers when deciding upon concession renewals.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":45761,"journal":{"name":"Economics of Transportation","volume":"45 ","pages":"Article 100447"},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2026-01-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146001779","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-10-31DOI: 10.1016/j.ecotra.2025.100438
Tina Sardashti , Ali Husseinzadeh Kashan , Seyed Mojtaba Sajadi
Third-party logistics providers (3PLs) play a vital role in freight transportation supply chains (SC) and face intense competition to stay profitable. As a result, making well-informed decisions is crucial for their success. This study examines a 3PL that operates a railway fleet alongside competing 3PLs that rely on road transportation. While all 3PLs compete to secure cargo, those using road transport also face the challenge of attracting drivers amidst ongoing driver shortages. To address this, a risk-aversion model is developed for 3PLs. The study also considers a fuel refinery that supplies both biofuel and fossil fuel to meet the needs of road and rail transport. The refinery has the option to export surplus fuel to external markets at a premium price. Meanwhile, the government plays a key role by subsidizing biofuel supply and regulating greenhouse gas emissions from fuel production through penalties. A sustainable SC is achieved through a Nash equilibrium, with the government acting as the leader in a Stackelberg game framework. Prices and other decision variables are determined by optimizing each stakeholder's objective function, while the government's function is designed to ensure SC sustainability. Additionally, special emphasis is placed on promoting rail transport as an environmentally friendly alternative. The model's validity is demonstrated through a real-world case study and sensitivity analysis. Results indicate that government intervention supports SC sustainability by encouraging both rail transport and biofuel production, with biofuel optimized to account for 17.15 % of the total fuel supply on average. By implementing subsidies and improving logistics services, competition among 3PLs can drive higher rail fleet utilization, reaching up to 78 % of total fleet use.
{"title":"Game theory model for sustainable multi-modal freight transport: Balancing competition among risk-averse 3PLs and government intervention","authors":"Tina Sardashti , Ali Husseinzadeh Kashan , Seyed Mojtaba Sajadi","doi":"10.1016/j.ecotra.2025.100438","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecotra.2025.100438","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Third-party logistics providers (3PLs) play a vital role in freight transportation supply chains (SC) and face intense competition to stay profitable. As a result, making well-informed decisions is crucial for their success. This study examines a 3PL that operates a railway fleet alongside competing 3PLs that rely on road transportation. While all 3PLs compete to secure cargo, those using road transport also face the challenge of attracting drivers amidst ongoing driver shortages. To address this, a risk-aversion model is developed for 3PLs. The study also considers a fuel refinery that supplies both biofuel and fossil fuel to meet the needs of road and rail transport. The refinery has the option to export surplus fuel to external markets at a premium price. Meanwhile, the government plays a key role by subsidizing biofuel supply and regulating greenhouse gas emissions from fuel production through penalties. A sustainable SC is achieved through a Nash equilibrium, with the government acting as the leader in a Stackelberg game framework. Prices and other decision variables are determined by optimizing each stakeholder's objective function, while the government's function is designed to ensure SC sustainability. Additionally, special emphasis is placed on promoting rail transport as an environmentally friendly alternative. The model's validity is demonstrated through a real-world case study and sensitivity analysis. Results indicate that government intervention supports SC sustainability by encouraging both rail transport and biofuel production, with biofuel optimized to account for 17.15 % of the total fuel supply on average. By implementing subsidies and improving logistics services, competition among 3PLs can drive higher rail fleet utilization, reaching up to 78 % of total fleet use.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":45761,"journal":{"name":"Economics of Transportation","volume":"44 ","pages":"Article 100438"},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2025-10-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145416361","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-10-09DOI: 10.1016/j.ecotra.2025.100437
Gonzalo Ruiz Díaz
During the last decades, various studies have documented the impact of incentive regulation on the productive efficiency of network industries, being toll roads a notable exception. Using two-stage data envelopment analysis (DEA), we contrast the performance of two groups of Peruvian Public-Partnership Project (PPP) toll roads governed by distinct regulatory regimes, with different incentive powers and risks transferred to concessionaires. We find that during from 2016 to 2022, “pure toll” PPP projects achieved higher average efficiency scores than ‘hybrid toll-availability payment’ projects. As well, the calculation of Malmquist indices reveals the differentiated impacts of climatological and public health-related shocks on road productivity during the study period. Results also show that PPP projects with relatively strong incentives exhibited a greater average productivity growth than those characterized by low-powered incentive schemes. Additionally, the average profitability indicators of the first group of projects were higher than those of the second group.
{"title":"Incentive regulation and the productive efficiency of public-private partnership toll-roads","authors":"Gonzalo Ruiz Díaz","doi":"10.1016/j.ecotra.2025.100437","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecotra.2025.100437","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>During the last decades, various studies have documented the impact of incentive regulation on the productive efficiency of network industries, being toll roads a notable exception. Using two-stage data envelopment analysis (DEA), we contrast the performance of two groups of Peruvian Public-Partnership Project (PPP) toll roads governed by distinct regulatory regimes, with different incentive powers and risks transferred to concessionaires. We find that during from 2016 to 2022, “pure toll” PPP projects achieved higher average efficiency scores than ‘hybrid toll-availability payment’ projects. As well, the calculation of Malmquist indices reveals the differentiated impacts of climatological and public health-related shocks on road productivity during the study period. Results also show that PPP projects with relatively strong incentives exhibited a greater average productivity growth than those characterized by low-powered incentive schemes. Additionally, the average profitability indicators of the first group of projects were higher than those of the second group.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":45761,"journal":{"name":"Economics of Transportation","volume":"44 ","pages":"Article 100437"},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2025-10-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145267252","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-09-29DOI: 10.1016/j.ecotra.2025.100435
Laurent Franckx, Bruno Hoornaert
The Flemish Region in Belgium reformed its registration tax for passenger cars and its annual road tax in 2012 and 2016 respectively, to reflect a car's CO2 emissions and Euro pollution class. Moreover, from 2019 to 2020, natural persons and the self-employed could obtain a premium for the purchase of a zero-emission car. Using a difference-in-differences analysis, we find that the reform of the registration tax has caused an accelerated decrease in the CO2 emission factors of new cars sold in Flanders, compared to other regions. This result holds for privately owned cars as well as company cars. However, the average treatment effect was rather small compared to the counterfactual. The additional effects of the reform of the annual road tax and the zero-emission car premium are even smaller than for the registration tax, and not significant in the case of private cars.
{"title":"The reform of the Flemish registration and annual road taxes: did they cause a change in the CO2 emission factors of new cars?","authors":"Laurent Franckx, Bruno Hoornaert","doi":"10.1016/j.ecotra.2025.100435","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecotra.2025.100435","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The Flemish Region in Belgium reformed its registration tax for passenger cars and its annual road tax in 2012 and 2016 respectively, to reflect a car's CO<sub>2</sub> emissions and Euro pollution class. Moreover, from 2019 to 2020, natural persons and the self-employed could obtain a premium for the purchase of a zero-emission car. Using a difference-in-differences analysis, we find that the reform of the registration tax has <em>caused</em> an accelerated decrease in the CO<sub>2</sub> emission factors of new cars sold in Flanders, compared to other regions. This result holds for privately owned cars as well as company cars. However, the average treatment effect was rather small compared to the counterfactual. The additional effects of the reform of the annual road tax and the zero-emission car premium are even smaller than for the registration tax, and not significant in the case of private cars.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":45761,"journal":{"name":"Economics of Transportation","volume":"44 ","pages":"Article 100435"},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2025-09-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145220710","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-09-26DOI: 10.1016/j.ecotra.2025.100434
María Cervini-Plá , Mariona Tomàs , Javier Vázquez-Grenno
This paper empirically examines how consumers respond to reductions in public transportation fares by analyzing changes in their use of public transport. We exploit a policy that lowered fares across several municipalities in the metropolitan area of Barcelona. Our findings indicate a 39 percent increase in public transportation use during the year following the policy’s implementation. To assess whether the visibility of the policy shaped this response, we also examine the effects of the subsequent announcement of its financing scheme, nearly a year later. The announcement clarified that the fare reduction would be funded through a tax on homeowners. Once taxpayers became fully aware of both the fare reduction and its financing mechanism, their use of public transportation increased further, supporting the hypothesis that the visibility of public policies can shape individuals’ behavior regarding their use of public services. Finally, we estimate partial welfare effects, identifying both winners and losers.
{"title":"The impact of fare reductions on public transportation use","authors":"María Cervini-Plá , Mariona Tomàs , Javier Vázquez-Grenno","doi":"10.1016/j.ecotra.2025.100434","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecotra.2025.100434","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper empirically examines how consumers respond to reductions in public transportation fares by analyzing changes in their use of public transport. We exploit a policy that lowered fares across several municipalities in the metropolitan area of Barcelona. Our findings indicate a 39 percent increase in public transportation use during the year following the policy’s implementation. To assess whether the visibility of the policy shaped this response, we also examine the effects of the subsequent announcement of its financing scheme, nearly a year later. The announcement clarified that the fare reduction would be funded through a tax on homeowners. Once taxpayers became fully aware of both the fare reduction and its financing mechanism, their use of public transportation increased further, supporting the hypothesis that the visibility of public policies can shape individuals’ behavior regarding their use of public services. Finally, we estimate partial welfare effects, identifying both winners and losers.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":45761,"journal":{"name":"Economics of Transportation","volume":"44 ","pages":"Article 100434"},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2025-09-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145158387","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-09-01DOI: 10.1016/j.ecotra.2025.100427
Isaac Mann, David M. Levinson
The value of travel time and reliability are significant economic parameters in canonical transport Cost–Benefit Analysis. Our study employs connected vehicle data paired with Sydney, Australia’s, extensive toll road network to introduce a novel approach to valuing these metrics. Toll uptake makes the time–money trade-off explicit: travellers pay to avoid congestion. While toll choices have long been used to infer time valuation, a network-wide approach incorporating passive revealed preferences has not yet been explored. We design choice sets using methods termed route ‘observation’ and ‘generation’, and estimate time and reliability valuations using mixed-path size logit. Our findings align closely with official estimates used in project appraisal, and set the stage for panel revealed preference studies as connected vehicles occupy more of the vehicle fleet.
{"title":"Valuing travel time and reliability from emerging connected vehicle data","authors":"Isaac Mann, David M. Levinson","doi":"10.1016/j.ecotra.2025.100427","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecotra.2025.100427","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The value of travel time and reliability are significant economic parameters in canonical transport Cost–Benefit Analysis. Our study employs connected vehicle data paired with Sydney, Australia’s, extensive toll road network to introduce a novel approach to valuing these metrics. Toll uptake makes the time–money trade-off explicit: travellers pay to avoid congestion. While toll choices have long been used to infer time valuation, a network-wide approach incorporating passive revealed preferences has not yet been explored. We design choice sets using methods termed route ‘observation’ and ‘generation’, and estimate time and reliability valuations using mixed-path size logit. Our findings align closely with official estimates used in project appraisal, and set the stage for panel revealed preference studies as connected vehicles occupy more of the vehicle fleet.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":45761,"journal":{"name":"Economics of Transportation","volume":"44 ","pages":"Article 100427"},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144922675","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-07-23DOI: 10.1016/j.ecotra.2025.100426
Bryan S. Weber , Ali Moghtaderi , Paolo Cappellari
This paper examines the effects of a 2019 congestion surcharge on for-hire-vehicle and taxi usage in New York City. We use a difference-in-differences method to evaluate both the change in rides during this period and the coinciding decline in pickups. We find a significant decline in rides originating from the charged area (11%), and a parallel reduction in collisions (5%), injuries (9%), and some fatalities, suggesting that the policy has successfully created the intended reduction in vehicular activity. Taxis appear to lose a larger number of rides than their competition, both in single-passenger and shared rides.
{"title":"Effects of congestion surcharges: From ridership to competition and safety","authors":"Bryan S. Weber , Ali Moghtaderi , Paolo Cappellari","doi":"10.1016/j.ecotra.2025.100426","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecotra.2025.100426","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines the effects of a 2019 congestion surcharge on for-hire-vehicle and taxi usage in New York City. We use a difference-in-differences method to evaluate both the change in rides during this period and the coinciding decline in pickups. We find a significant decline in rides originating from the charged area (11%), and a parallel reduction in collisions (5%), injuries (9%), and some fatalities, suggesting that the policy has successfully created the intended reduction in vehicular activity. Taxis appear to lose a larger number of rides than their competition, both in single-passenger and shared rides.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":45761,"journal":{"name":"Economics of Transportation","volume":"43 ","pages":"Article 100426"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2025-07-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144687063","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-07-15DOI: 10.1016/j.ecotra.2025.100424
H. Zhang , A.I. Czerny , J. van Ommeren , H.-M. Niemeier
This paper considers European airline markets to establish a causal effect of competition on pricing dynamics. It shows that intertemporal price dispersion is strongly reduced by competition because flights booked close to departure time are priced substantially lower when competition increases. This way competition mainly benefits late bookers. Low-cost carrier competition appears to have a strong and lasting negative effect on intertemporal price dispersion. The effect of competition by full-service carriers is moderate and seems to disappear in the long run. This study confirms the crucial importance of low-cost carrier competition for European aviation markets.
{"title":"Intertemporal price dispersion: The role of competition","authors":"H. Zhang , A.I. Czerny , J. van Ommeren , H.-M. Niemeier","doi":"10.1016/j.ecotra.2025.100424","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecotra.2025.100424","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper considers European airline markets to establish a causal effect of competition on pricing dynamics. It shows that intertemporal price dispersion is strongly reduced by competition because flights booked close to departure time are priced substantially lower when competition increases. This way competition mainly benefits late bookers. Low-cost carrier competition appears to have a strong and lasting negative effect on intertemporal price dispersion. The effect of competition by full-service carriers is moderate and seems to disappear in the long run. This study confirms the crucial importance of low-cost carrier competition for European aviation markets.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":45761,"journal":{"name":"Economics of Transportation","volume":"43 ","pages":"Article 100424"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2025-07-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144632441","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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