Pub Date : 2025-03-25DOI: 10.1016/j.ecotra.2025.100411
Justin Tyndall
Of the 7500 pedestrian road deaths recorded in the US in 2022, 79% took place during the night. Low lighting reduces visibility, potentially increasing the frequency and severity of vehicle-pedestrian collisions. I use complete US data on 193,000 nighttime pedestrian deaths, spanning 1975 to 2022. Nightly variation in moonlight provides a natural experiment that exogenously impacts road illumination. Across the US, nighttime pedestrian deaths are 5% lower when the moon is at its brightest, compared to a night with no moonlight. Under cloud-free conditions, peak moonlight causes a 17% drop in pedestrian deaths. In rural areas with low artificial lighting, the effect is 39%. I establish a clear causal relationship between road illumination and pedestrian safety. A small increase in ambient light causes a large improvement in pedestrian outcomes. The finding has policy implications for road safety and the artificial lighting of roadways.
{"title":"Road illumination and nighttime pedestrian deaths: Evidence from moonlight","authors":"Justin Tyndall","doi":"10.1016/j.ecotra.2025.100411","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecotra.2025.100411","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Of the 7500 pedestrian road deaths recorded in the US in 2022, 79% took place during the night. Low lighting reduces visibility, potentially increasing the frequency and severity of vehicle-pedestrian collisions. I use complete US data on 193,000 nighttime pedestrian deaths, spanning 1975 to 2022. Nightly variation in moonlight provides a natural experiment that exogenously impacts road illumination. Across the US, nighttime pedestrian deaths are 5% lower when the moon is at its brightest, compared to a night with no moonlight. Under cloud-free conditions, peak moonlight causes a 17% drop in pedestrian deaths. In rural areas with low artificial lighting, the effect is 39%. I establish a clear causal relationship between road illumination and pedestrian safety. A small increase in ambient light causes a large improvement in pedestrian outcomes. The finding has policy implications for road safety and the artificial lighting of roadways.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":45761,"journal":{"name":"Economics of Transportation","volume":"42 ","pages":"Article 100411"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2025-03-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143697369","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-03-25DOI: 10.1016/j.ecotra.2025.100409
Anca D. Cristea , Anna Miromanova
Air passenger transport has been dramatically impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic due to lockdown policies and social distancing mandates. However, once restrictions were lifted, air traffic has reverted very slowly to pre-pandemic levels with many markets still recovering from the downturn. We try to understand what causes this sluggish recovery of air passenger transport and ask whether it could be related to structural changes in business and working arrangements post-pandemic. Specifically, we consider if the dramatic shift towards telecommuting and remote work has transformed the nature of business interactions in the marketplace, leading to a negative demand shock for air travel. We use U.S. city-level data on the fraction of jobs that can be performed remotely to proxy for telecommuting, and employ a difference-in-differences estimation method to investigate if air travel demand post-COVID is lower in cities with a larger share of remote work, all else equal. An event study analysis using monthly data evaluates differences in air passenger traffic across cities in the periods leading up to the COVID-19 outbreak and during its aftermath, distinguishing between cities with a higher versus lower share of remote jobs. All the estimation results lend support to the hypothesis that the raise in telecommuting following the COVID-19 pandemic has slowed down the recovery of air travel to pre-pandemic levels.
{"title":"Telecommuting and the recovery of passenger aviation post-COVID-19","authors":"Anca D. Cristea , Anna Miromanova","doi":"10.1016/j.ecotra.2025.100409","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecotra.2025.100409","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Air passenger transport has been dramatically impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic due to lockdown policies and social distancing mandates. However, once restrictions were lifted, air traffic has reverted very slowly to pre-pandemic levels with many markets still recovering from the downturn. We try to understand what causes this sluggish recovery of air passenger transport and ask whether it could be related to structural changes in business and working arrangements post-pandemic. Specifically, we consider if the dramatic shift towards telecommuting and remote work has transformed the nature of business interactions in the marketplace, leading to a negative demand shock for air travel. We use U.S. city-level data on the fraction of jobs that can be performed remotely to proxy for telecommuting, and employ a difference-in-differences estimation method to investigate if air travel demand post-COVID is lower in cities with a larger share of remote work, all else equal. An event study analysis using monthly data evaluates differences in air passenger traffic across cities in the periods leading up to the COVID-19 outbreak and during its aftermath, distinguishing between cities with a higher versus lower share of remote jobs. All the estimation results lend support to the hypothesis that the raise in telecommuting following the COVID-19 pandemic has slowed down the recovery of air travel to pre-pandemic levels.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":45761,"journal":{"name":"Economics of Transportation","volume":"42 ","pages":"Article 100409"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2025-03-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143697370","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-03-21DOI: 10.1016/j.ecotra.2025.100413
André Oliveira , Gualter Couto , Pedro Pimentel
Air and maritime transport services enable mobility and economic and social development, but they have significant environmental impacts. To reduce carbon emissions, there is a growing trend towards adopting electric ships for short-distance passenger transport. Nonetheless, there is a lack of appropriate valuation frameworks. This paper proposes a framework specifically tailored for evaluating investments in electric ships, considering the economic, environmental, and social impacts. A real options approach balancing users' utility is used, with demand following a stochastic process and unexpected jumps. Using the Azores as an empirical case study, the results revealed that investing 25 million euros in electric ships yields a significantly positive impact on social welfare (1906 million euros). For long-distance travel, maritime transport's impact on social welfare is diminished, making it less suitable. Embracing electric ships can unlock new possibilities for enhancing social welfare and sustainability. The contribution of this paper lies in its unique approach, as very few frameworks enable the comprehensive social-environmental valuation of green investments.
{"title":"Currents of change: Social-environmental valuation of electric ships for sustainable passenger transport","authors":"André Oliveira , Gualter Couto , Pedro Pimentel","doi":"10.1016/j.ecotra.2025.100413","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecotra.2025.100413","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Air and maritime transport services enable mobility and economic and social development, but they have significant environmental impacts. To reduce carbon emissions, there is a growing trend towards adopting electric ships for short-distance passenger transport. Nonetheless, there is a lack of appropriate valuation frameworks. This paper proposes a framework specifically tailored for evaluating investments in electric ships, considering the economic, environmental, and social impacts. A real options approach balancing users' utility is used, with demand following a stochastic process and unexpected jumps. Using the Azores as an empirical case study, the results revealed that investing 25 million euros in electric ships yields a significantly positive impact on social welfare (1906 million euros). For long-distance travel, maritime transport's impact on social welfare is diminished, making it less suitable. Embracing electric ships can unlock new possibilities for enhancing social welfare and sustainability. The contribution of this paper lies in its unique approach, as very few frameworks enable the comprehensive social-environmental valuation of green investments.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":45761,"journal":{"name":"Economics of Transportation","volume":"42 ","pages":"Article 100413"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2025-03-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143682641","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-03-20DOI: 10.1016/j.ecotra.2025.100410
Ming Hsin Lin
This study investigates congestion pricing and capacity investment for internationally interlinked airports considering cost recovery. Our global welfare maximization shows that “single pricing per-flight” or “single pricing per-passenger” could be sufficiently cost-recovering alternatives when first-best per-passenger subsidies are not feasible under “mix pricing (choosing per-flight and per-passenger charges).” However, each cost-recovering single-pricing method causes distortions, and single pricing per-flight is the smaller distortive. Our local welfare maximization shows similar results when per-passenger subsidies under mix pricing for each country are not feasible. Surprisingly, when each country's mix pricing does not require per-passenger subsidies, the distortions under cost-recovering single pricing per-flight may be smaller than those under cost-recovering mix pricing. However, each airport's capacity investment can be socially efficient only when single pricing per-passenger is adopted.
{"title":"Airport congestion pricing and capacity: Cost recovery with per-flight or per-passenger charges","authors":"Ming Hsin Lin","doi":"10.1016/j.ecotra.2025.100410","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecotra.2025.100410","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates congestion pricing and capacity investment for internationally interlinked airports considering cost recovery. Our global welfare maximization shows that “single pricing per-flight” or “single pricing per-passenger” could be sufficiently cost-recovering alternatives when first-best per-passenger subsidies are not feasible under “mix pricing (choosing per-flight and per-passenger charges).” However, each cost-recovering single-pricing method causes distortions, and single pricing per-flight is the smaller distortive. Our local welfare maximization shows similar results when per-passenger subsidies under mix pricing for each country are not feasible. Surprisingly, when each country's mix pricing does not require per-passenger subsidies, the distortions under cost-recovering single pricing per-flight may be smaller than those under cost-recovering mix pricing. However, each airport's capacity investment can be socially efficient only when single pricing per-passenger is adopted.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":45761,"journal":{"name":"Economics of Transportation","volume":"42 ","pages":"Article 100410"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2025-03-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143682640","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-02-20DOI: 10.1016/j.ecotra.2025.100399
Yueyi Hou, Hongwei Wang, Guanqun Shi
We study the collusion between the regulator and the private sector in misreporting service quality in highway projects to obtain performance-based subsidies. The impact of collusion on government subsidies and tolls is analyzed using the principal-agent model, and a mechanism to prevent collusion is devised. The analysis explores the incentive effect of government subsidies on effort in the collusion case. A mechanism for preventing collusion was presented to induce the supervision department to report truthful service information, and the effectiveness of the mechanism was analyzed. These results indicate that collusion leads to subsidies that no longer motivate efforts to improve service quality. Specific subsidies and penalties were provided as collusion prevention mechanisms. The collusion prevention mechanism effectively alleviates the ineffectiveness of subsidies, encourages the private sector to increase its efforts, reduces tolls, and improves social welfare. Social welfare is maximized when collusion penalties are imposed entirely on the private sector.
{"title":"Collusion prevention mechanism in PPP highway projects: Optimal government subsidy, toll and penalty","authors":"Yueyi Hou, Hongwei Wang, Guanqun Shi","doi":"10.1016/j.ecotra.2025.100399","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecotra.2025.100399","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We study the collusion between the regulator and the private sector in misreporting service quality in highway projects to obtain performance-based subsidies. The impact of collusion on government subsidies and tolls is analyzed using the principal-agent model, and a mechanism to prevent collusion is devised. The analysis explores the incentive effect of government subsidies on effort in the collusion case. A mechanism for preventing collusion was presented to induce the supervision department to report truthful service information, and the effectiveness of the mechanism was analyzed. These results indicate that collusion leads to subsidies that no longer motivate efforts to improve service quality. Specific subsidies and penalties were provided as collusion prevention mechanisms. The collusion prevention mechanism effectively alleviates the ineffectiveness of subsidies, encourages the private sector to increase its efforts, reduces tolls, and improves social welfare. Social welfare is maximized when collusion penalties are imposed entirely on the private sector.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":45761,"journal":{"name":"Economics of Transportation","volume":"42 ","pages":"Article 100399"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2025-02-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143445641","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-02-12DOI: 10.1016/j.ecotra.2025.100398
Evangelia Filiopoulou, Cleopatra Bardaki, Mara Nikolaidou, Christos Michalakelis
An economic viability of last-mile delivery via drones is assessed, offering an investment model comparing traditional motorcycle delivery to drone-based alternatives. Two drone investment options — purchase or lease (Drone-as-a-Service) — were introduced. The proposed last-mile delivery model considers capital and operational costs, calculating Net Present Value(NPV) and Return of Investment (ROI) per investment scenario. For the operational expenses, the energy consumption model for the motorcycle and the drone is formulated. Furthermore, three wind settings — low, medium, and high wind — were examined to account for environmental factors impacting drone performance. The investment model has been formulated and then validated considering the relevant literature as well as realistic information collected during a semi-structured interview with industry experts The findings affirm the financial feasibility of adopting drones for last-mile delivery. Drone-as-a-Service emerged as a more profitable choice, exhibiting improved NPV and ROI over owned drones or motorcycle delivery. Emphasizing DaaS in the investment model presents a probable scenario for the logistics industry, easing their transition to drone technology. Evidence of DaaS viability is of value since it could convince risk-averse distribution vendors to adopt drone delivery.
{"title":"Drone-as-a-Service for last-mile delivery: Evidence of economic viability","authors":"Evangelia Filiopoulou, Cleopatra Bardaki, Mara Nikolaidou, Christos Michalakelis","doi":"10.1016/j.ecotra.2025.100398","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecotra.2025.100398","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>An economic viability of last-mile delivery via drones is assessed, offering an investment model comparing traditional motorcycle delivery to drone-based alternatives. Two drone investment options — purchase or lease (Drone-as-a-Service) — were introduced. The proposed last-mile delivery model considers capital and operational costs, calculating Net Present Value(NPV) and Return of Investment (ROI) per investment scenario. For the operational expenses, the energy consumption model for the motorcycle and the drone is formulated. Furthermore, three wind settings — low, medium, and high wind — were examined to account for environmental factors impacting drone performance. The investment model has been formulated and then validated considering the relevant literature as well as realistic information collected during a semi-structured interview with industry experts The findings affirm the financial feasibility of adopting drones for last-mile delivery. Drone-as-a-Service emerged as a more profitable choice, exhibiting improved NPV and ROI over owned drones or motorcycle delivery. Emphasizing DaaS in the investment model presents a probable scenario for the logistics industry, easing their transition to drone technology. Evidence of DaaS viability is of value since it could convince risk-averse distribution vendors to adopt drone delivery.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":45761,"journal":{"name":"Economics of Transportation","volume":"41 ","pages":"Article 100398"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2025-02-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143386969","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-02-10DOI: 10.1016/j.ecotra.2025.100397
Marten Ovaere , Stef Proost
We develop a three-stage game with three governments, a EU-US aircraft production duopoly, and competitive airlines. The model determines the optimal combination of fossil fuel taxes and fuel efficiency standards to decarbonize the aviation sector with imperfect competition and technological spillovers, under various government cooperation levels. We find that without international cooperation, technology spillovers prevent large efficiency investments. Fuel taxes are low but exceed domestic climate damages in regions without aircraft production. Regions with domestic aircraft producers subsidize aviation when the social cost of carbon is low. Second, EU-US cooperation increases fuel efficiency, but fuel taxes are lower than without cooperation, such that carbon emission reductions are limited both with and without cooperation. Third, global cooperation yields the largest efficiency gains, but fuel taxes remain below the world climate damage. Finally, achieving net-zero emissions requires a combination of fuel efficiency, demand reduction through higher fuel taxes, and new aviation fuels.
{"title":"Strategic climate policy in global aviation: Aviation fuel taxes and efficiency standards with duopolistic aircraft producers","authors":"Marten Ovaere , Stef Proost","doi":"10.1016/j.ecotra.2025.100397","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecotra.2025.100397","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We develop a three-stage game with three governments, a EU-US aircraft production duopoly, and competitive airlines. The model determines the optimal combination of fossil fuel taxes and fuel efficiency standards to decarbonize the aviation sector with imperfect competition and technological spillovers, under various government cooperation levels. We find that without international cooperation, technology spillovers prevent large efficiency investments. Fuel taxes are low but exceed domestic climate damages in regions without aircraft production. Regions with domestic aircraft producers subsidize aviation when the social cost of carbon is low. Second, EU-US cooperation increases fuel efficiency, but fuel taxes are lower than without cooperation, such that carbon emission reductions are limited both with and without cooperation. Third, global cooperation yields the largest efficiency gains, but fuel taxes remain below the world climate damage. Finally, achieving net-zero emissions requires a combination of fuel efficiency, demand reduction through higher fuel taxes, and new aviation fuels.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":45761,"journal":{"name":"Economics of Transportation","volume":"41 ","pages":"Article 100397"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2025-02-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143376869","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-02-05DOI: 10.1016/j.ecotra.2025.100394
Jiyeon Cheon
This paper examines the distributional effects of a Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) tax, focusing on the increasing adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) in the United States. Using a two-period model that integrates decisions on vehicle selection and subsequent driving behavior, the study evaluates short-term changes in consumer surplus resulting from replacing a gasoline tax with a VMT tax. The results suggest that a revenue-neutral VMT tax could modestly increase consumer surplus by approximately $2 per vehicle annually. The analysis also reveals that a uniform federal VMT tax rate leads to varying outcomes across states. Furthermore, the findings demonstrate that the policy’s efficiency improves with higher EV adoption rates. Specifically, when EVs account for 5% of the market share, the additional consumer surplus generated by EV adoption is twice the surplus achieved through a revenue-neutral VMT tax.
{"title":"Distributional effects of a vehicle miles traveled tax over the different vehicle efficiency","authors":"Jiyeon Cheon","doi":"10.1016/j.ecotra.2025.100394","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecotra.2025.100394","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines the distributional effects of a Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) tax, focusing on the increasing adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) in the United States. Using a two-period model that integrates decisions on vehicle selection and subsequent driving behavior, the study evaluates short-term changes in consumer surplus resulting from replacing a gasoline tax with a VMT tax. The results suggest that a revenue-neutral VMT tax could modestly increase consumer surplus by approximately $2 per vehicle annually. The analysis also reveals that a uniform federal VMT tax rate leads to varying outcomes across states. Furthermore, the findings demonstrate that the policy’s efficiency improves with higher EV adoption rates. Specifically, when EVs account for 5% of the market share, the additional consumer surplus generated by EV adoption is twice the surplus achieved through a revenue-neutral VMT tax.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":45761,"journal":{"name":"Economics of Transportation","volume":"41 ","pages":"Article 100394"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2025-02-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143165214","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-01-30DOI: 10.1016/j.ecotra.2025.100395
Alberto A. Gaggero , Alexander Luttmann
When faced with capacity constraints, firms may moderate demand by increasing prices when demand is known to be high ex-ante (i.e., systematic peak-load pricing). In this article, we examine the extent and duration of systematic peak-load pricing in the days surrounding public holidays in the U.S. airline industry. Applying two-stage least squares techniques to a unique panel of over 18 million fares, we estimate travel premiums ranging from 4.3% to 83.1% in the days surrounding national holidays and from 2.7% to 34.7% in the days surrounding federal holidays. We also find that the duration of the peak-travel period is longer for national holidays and shorter for federal holidays. Examining heterogeneity in holiday peak-load pricing, we find some evidence that travel premiums during national holidays are larger on longer-distance routes, on routes to or from slot-controlled airports, on routes to leisure destinations, and on ultra-low-cost carriers.
{"title":"Systematic peak-load pricing during holiday periods: Evidence from the U.S. airline industry","authors":"Alberto A. Gaggero , Alexander Luttmann","doi":"10.1016/j.ecotra.2025.100395","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecotra.2025.100395","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>When faced with capacity constraints, firms may moderate demand by increasing prices when demand is known to be high ex-ante (i.e., systematic peak-load pricing). In this article, we examine the extent and duration of systematic peak-load pricing in the days surrounding public holidays in the U.S. airline industry. Applying two-stage least squares techniques to a unique panel of over 18 million fares, we estimate travel premiums ranging from 4.3% to 83.1% in the days surrounding national holidays and from 2.7% to 34.7% in the days surrounding federal holidays. We also find that the duration of the peak-travel period is longer for national holidays and shorter for federal holidays. Examining heterogeneity in holiday peak-load pricing, we find some evidence that travel premiums during national holidays are larger on longer-distance routes, on routes to or from slot-controlled airports, on routes to leisure destinations, and on ultra-low-cost carriers.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":45761,"journal":{"name":"Economics of Transportation","volume":"41 ","pages":"Article 100395"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2025-01-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143165213","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-01-26DOI: 10.1016/j.ecotra.2025.100396
Yifei Cai , Yahua Zhang , Anming Zhang
Using the Generalized Forecast Error Variance Decomposition (GFEVD) method, this study assesses the effects of oil price shocks on both the return and volatility of aviation stocks. Specifically, we examine how different types of oil supply shocks—such as those related to oil supply, economic activity, oil consumption demand, and oil inventory—impact airline returns and volatility. Our findings indicate that fluctuations in airline returns primarily stem from economic activity shocks. However, the volatility of airlines is influenced by a range of shocks. Lastly, we offer important policy implications tailored for airline managers, market investors, and policymakers to navigate this relationship effectively.
{"title":"Oil price shocks and airlines stock return and volatility – A GFEVD analysis","authors":"Yifei Cai , Yahua Zhang , Anming Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.ecotra.2025.100396","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecotra.2025.100396","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Using the Generalized Forecast Error Variance Decomposition (GFEVD) method, this study assesses the effects of oil price shocks on both the return and volatility of aviation stocks. Specifically, we examine how different types of oil supply shocks—such as those related to oil supply, economic activity, oil consumption demand, and oil inventory—impact airline returns and volatility. Our findings indicate that fluctuations in airline returns primarily stem from economic activity shocks. However, the volatility of airlines is influenced by a range of shocks. Lastly, we offer important policy implications tailored for airline managers, market investors, and policymakers to navigate this relationship effectively.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":45761,"journal":{"name":"Economics of Transportation","volume":"41 ","pages":"Article 100396"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2025-01-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143165211","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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