Imperial Manila syndrome in poverty reduction: a province-level spatial distribution analysis

The Philippines is an insular geography stretching nearly 2000 km from north to south, and has been beset with serious spatial poverty imbalances since its independence. This study comprehensively examined the provincial-level spatial poverty distribution for the years 2000–2018 by applying various spatial distribution analysis methods. Our conventional inequality measures showed an average significant poverty reduction and substantial inter-provincial poverty reduction gaps for the study period. The growth incidence curve revealed that the poverty gap increase was mainly attributable to the provinces with less (more) serious poverty, experiencing more (less) poverty reduction. Considering the island-province hierarchical regional structure, the one-stage Theil decomposition analysis indicated a substantial increase in inter-island components playing a major role in influencing the overall inter-provincial poverty gaps. This result differs from the findings of many existing regional income inequality studies that show the inter-group component plays a minor role. Our club convergence analysis identified six clubs and showed the provinces with higher poverty incidences are in the Mindanao Island, especially in the Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao. Whereas the lower poverty incidences are in the Luzon Island, especially Manila and its neighboring cities and provinces. This core–periphery structure infers capital city bias, referred to as the “Imperial Manila Syndrome” (IMS). We verified that the IMS structure became more serious during the study period. Therefore, region-specific government interventions and inter-governmental coordination are needed for balanced poverty reduction.