The Population Replacement of Russia: Objectives, Trends, Factors, and Possible Outcomes by 2024

ABSTRACT This article assesses the likelihood that the objectives for replacement of the population established by the President of the Russian Federation in the May 2018 Decree [1] (hereinafter the “Decree”) can be achieved. For each of the objectives, the author outlines the current situation, current trends, and the most likely outcomes. He surfaces the factors that either contribute to a solution to the indicated problems or aggravate them. In particular, any growth in or even simple maintenance of the current number of births will be hindered by the constantly decreasing number of women of active reproductive age (25–39 years of age) that has been observed since 2015. Women in this age range account for four-fifths of all births. 1 1. The study was performed with the financial support of RFBR, project no. 19-011-00626.All of the indicators that have not been footnoted in the article were calculated based on the Rosstat database: http//cbsd.gks.ru [2]. The number of women in this group will decline from 17.9 million in 2015 to 15.0 million in 2024 and then to 12.0 million in 2030. The task of reducing mortality from diseases of the circulatory system and from cancer will be hampered by the aging of the population; the inability of many members of the population to quickly break bad habits, such as smoking and regularly consuming alcohol to excess; the poor quality of consumed food and alcohol; and so on. In addition, in the future, as life expectancy (LE) increases in Russia, those who have been cured of diseases associated with other major causes of death will eventually begin to die from diseases of the circulatory system or from cancer. These diseases are the leading causes of death in countries with high LE. The author draws the following basic conclusions: It will be practically impossible to achieve the goal of “increasing the population of the country” (in accordance with the Decree) by reproduction alone in the near future. It will be necessary to achieve a balance by both increasing the birth rate and encouraging migration in order to solve the general demographic problems facing Russia (ensuring the growth of the country’s population; optimizing the distribution of the population across its territory in order to serve not only the economic but also the geopolitical interests of the state; compensating for volatile shifts in the country’s demographic structure; and so on).