Pub Date : 2022-05-04DOI: 10.1080/10610154.2022.2133516
L. Gudkov, H. Zorkaia, E. Kochergina, K. Piniia, A. Ryseva
{"title":"Generation Z: Youth Under the Rule of Putin","authors":"L. Gudkov, H. Zorkaia, E. Kochergina, K. Piniia, A. Ryseva","doi":"10.1080/10610154.2022.2133516","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/10610154.2022.2133516","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":85546,"journal":{"name":"Sociological research","volume":"60 1","pages":"1 - 152"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-05-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45768773","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-11-02DOI: 10.1080/10610154.2021.2133513
Y. Simagin
ABSTRACT Russia today faces acute demographic problems, which have been the focus of government policy and media attention. Since studies of population migration are a special topic of demography that requires a separate analysis, the article focuses on the problems of natural population change. In the scientific literature, the study of Russia’s demographic problems represents a distinct perspective. The experts are well versed in the subject and can address nuances that are overlooked “from the outside.” Many social scientists are critical of the government’s attempts to solve Russia’s demographic problems. Government achievements are often downplayed because they have not been completely successful. First, although Russia’s mortality rate has declined for most of the twenty-first century, it is still high when compared to most European countries. Second, although Russia’s birth rate is higher than in most European countries, it is still below the world average. These two facts have both positive and negative interpretations. Nevertheless, all demographic projections indicate that Russia’s population will continue to naturally decline in the coming decades. To solve this problem, it is necessary to research new approaches and develop new demographic policies, which are possible only through the combined efforts of all Russian demographers, despite their theoretical and practical disagreements. The national project Demography and related programs can help address these problems only if the proposed policies are scientifically studied and adapted to real Russian conditions.
{"title":"A Study of Russia’s Demographic Problems in the Twenty-First Century","authors":"Y. Simagin","doi":"10.1080/10610154.2021.2133513","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/10610154.2021.2133513","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Russia today faces acute demographic problems, which have been the focus of government policy and media attention. Since studies of population migration are a special topic of demography that requires a separate analysis, the article focuses on the problems of natural population change. In the scientific literature, the study of Russia’s demographic problems represents a distinct perspective. The experts are well versed in the subject and can address nuances that are overlooked “from the outside.” Many social scientists are critical of the government’s attempts to solve Russia’s demographic problems. Government achievements are often downplayed because they have not been completely successful. First, although Russia’s mortality rate has declined for most of the twenty-first century, it is still high when compared to most European countries. Second, although Russia’s birth rate is higher than in most European countries, it is still below the world average. These two facts have both positive and negative interpretations. Nevertheless, all demographic projections indicate that Russia’s population will continue to naturally decline in the coming decades. To solve this problem, it is necessary to research new approaches and develop new demographic policies, which are possible only through the combined efforts of all Russian demographers, despite their theoretical and practical disagreements. The national project Demography and related programs can help address these problems only if the proposed policies are scientifically studied and adapted to real Russian conditions.","PeriodicalId":85546,"journal":{"name":"Sociological research","volume":"59 1","pages":"63 - 79"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-11-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44146302","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-11-02DOI: 10.1080/10610154.2021.2133512
E. Riumina
ABSTRACT This article summarizes the results of a study that developed and analyzed the typology of Russian regions based on criteria intended to evaluate the quality of human potential. Prior to this work, ten clusters of this typology were studied, and exceptions to falling into clusters with neighboring regions (which was typical for most regions) were considered separately. Although among the qualitative characteristics of human potential not a single one reflected the territorial location of the regions, in the typology they were distributed precisely on a geographical basis. Unobservable factors, whose effects on human potential were mediated by study-driven indicators, played a decisive role in the clustering of regions. This result led us to consider the research of L.N. Gumilyov, which focuses on how the geography of territories, landscapes, and climates form human potential. In many ways, geographical conditions determine the economic activities that form the corresponding skills and abilities of a given population. With the exception of four small clusters, the typology of regions, based on the characteristics of human potential, corresponds to the composition of the federal districts. Three of the four smaller clusters had a pronounced natural resource orientation and one had the financial advantages of Russia’s two capital cities. This implies that the administrations of the federal districts could be engaged to improve the quality of human potential. The protracted process of giving administrative status to the federal districts can be completed by setting them the important social task of developing and implementing a strategy for improving the qualitative characteristics of the population.
{"title":"The Role of the Geographical Factor in the Formation and Development of Human Potential","authors":"E. Riumina","doi":"10.1080/10610154.2021.2133512","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/10610154.2021.2133512","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT This article summarizes the results of a study that developed and analyzed the typology of Russian regions based on criteria intended to evaluate the quality of human potential. Prior to this work, ten clusters of this typology were studied, and exceptions to falling into clusters with neighboring regions (which was typical for most regions) were considered separately. Although among the qualitative characteristics of human potential not a single one reflected the territorial location of the regions, in the typology they were distributed precisely on a geographical basis. Unobservable factors, whose effects on human potential were mediated by study-driven indicators, played a decisive role in the clustering of regions. This result led us to consider the research of L.N. Gumilyov, which focuses on how the geography of territories, landscapes, and climates form human potential. In many ways, geographical conditions determine the economic activities that form the corresponding skills and abilities of a given population. With the exception of four small clusters, the typology of regions, based on the characteristics of human potential, corresponds to the composition of the federal districts. Three of the four smaller clusters had a pronounced natural resource orientation and one had the financial advantages of Russia’s two capital cities. This implies that the administrations of the federal districts could be engaged to improve the quality of human potential. The protracted process of giving administrative status to the federal districts can be completed by setting them the important social task of developing and implementing a strategy for improving the qualitative characteristics of the population.","PeriodicalId":85546,"journal":{"name":"Sociological research","volume":"59 1","pages":"115 - 124"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-11-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46190662","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-11-02DOI: 10.1080/10610154.2021.2133508
L.A. Okolskaia
ABSTRACT The article analyzes parental values in Russia and 33 other countries, and considers how these values have changed from 1990–1991 to 2017–2020. Russian dynamics are analyzed via seven waves, while the international dynamics are assigned two waves. We used a combination of data from the World Values Survey and the European Values Study and discovered that in 1990 the Russian value agenda regarding children was highly survival oriented. By 2017–2020 certain changes had occurred: Russians no longer accented survival values (e.g., hard work, thrift, and obedience), with the exception of religiosity, which has markedly increased; self-expression values (e.g., independence and imagination) became more popular, while humanistic values lost much of their importance for Russians. In 33 countries, humanistic values remained as popular as in 1990, while survival values became less important. The change in Russian parental values runs parallel to the change in Russian personal values.
{"title":"Russian Parental Values in the Cross-Country Context from 1990–1991 to 2017–2020","authors":"L.A. Okolskaia","doi":"10.1080/10610154.2021.2133508","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/10610154.2021.2133508","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT The article analyzes parental values in Russia and 33 other countries, and considers how these values have changed from 1990–1991 to 2017–2020. Russian dynamics are analyzed via seven waves, while the international dynamics are assigned two waves. We used a combination of data from the World Values Survey and the European Values Study and discovered that in 1990 the Russian value agenda regarding children was highly survival oriented. By 2017–2020 certain changes had occurred: Russians no longer accented survival values (e.g., hard work, thrift, and obedience), with the exception of religiosity, which has markedly increased; self-expression values (e.g., independence and imagination) became more popular, while humanistic values lost much of their importance for Russians. In 33 countries, humanistic values remained as popular as in 1990, while survival values became less important. The change in Russian parental values runs parallel to the change in Russian personal values.","PeriodicalId":85546,"journal":{"name":"Sociological research","volume":"59 1","pages":"80 - 99"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-11-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46571017","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-11-02DOI: 10.1080/10610154.2019.1792233
Elena V. Prustkova, K. Markin
ABSTRACT In the sociology of religion, there are many approaches to measuring religiosity. Most of the methodological literature focuses on operationalizing the concept—determining important aspects of religiosity and selecting the right indicators. At the same time, little attention has been given to the reverse operation—the construction of a common descriptor of religiosity. We consider three approaches to this problem: 1) using individual indicators; 2) constructing a general descriptor of religiosity on the basis of several indicators with the application of summation, averaging, and the principles of the strongest or weakest answer or factor analysis; and 3) constructing a typology based on several descriptors by identifying relatively homogeneous groups of religiosity using cluster analysis or latent class analysis. The strengths and weaknesses of each approach are discussed. In the case of multiple social forms of religiosity, the latter approach is most productive. The article presents the typology of Orthodox Russians, built using hierarchical cluster analysis based on data gathered by the Orthodox Monitor all-Russian survey (2011). The typology is based on four indicators: faith in God, frequency of church attendance, frequency of attending religious services, and the frequency of making confession and taking communion. Nine groups were identified using our analysis.
{"title":"A Typology of Orthodox Russians: Toward the Operationalization of a Generalized Descriptor of Religiosity","authors":"Elena V. Prustkova, K. Markin","doi":"10.1080/10610154.2019.1792233","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/10610154.2019.1792233","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT In the sociology of religion, there are many approaches to measuring religiosity. Most of the methodological literature focuses on operationalizing the concept—determining important aspects of religiosity and selecting the right indicators. At the same time, little attention has been given to the reverse operation—the construction of a common descriptor of religiosity. We consider three approaches to this problem: 1) using individual indicators; 2) constructing a general descriptor of religiosity on the basis of several indicators with the application of summation, averaging, and the principles of the strongest or weakest answer or factor analysis; and 3) constructing a typology based on several descriptors by identifying relatively homogeneous groups of religiosity using cluster analysis or latent class analysis. The strengths and weaknesses of each approach are discussed. In the case of multiple social forms of religiosity, the latter approach is most productive. The article presents the typology of Orthodox Russians, built using hierarchical cluster analysis based on data gathered by the Orthodox Monitor all-Russian survey (2011). The typology is based on four indicators: faith in God, frequency of church attendance, frequency of attending religious services, and the frequency of making confession and taking communion. Nine groups were identified using our analysis.","PeriodicalId":85546,"journal":{"name":"Sociological research","volume":"59 1","pages":"125 - 138"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-11-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49205526","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-11-02DOI: 10.1080/10610154.2021.2133509
E. A. Popov
ABSTRACT The article evaluates the social functions of rural teachers and attempts to identify the internal noneconomic resources necessary to solve pressing social issues associated with rural life (including problems connected with alienation, alcoholism, and unemployment). The study tests the hypothesis that rural teachers are active participants in rural life. This work is based on the methodological resources of rural sociology, the sociology of education, and approaches formed within the framework of problems associated with social well-being and the quality of life. Using the results of a study based on semistructured interviews conducted in the rural areas of Altai Krai and the Altai Republic (N = 124), the social functions of teachers and their specific roles as professionals were determined. In addition, the article analyzes the role of rural teachers to ensure the resilience of rural residents. Resilience has been correlated with certain values and norms rooted in rural life (family, health, work, etc.), and rural teachers are often involved in preserving these values and norms. They provide support and assistance in solving specific social problems (raising children, overcoming difficult life situations, socializing adults and children, etc.). The active participation of teachers in the integration of the village community is also discussed. It was possible to identify which activities initiated by rural teachers are aimed at consolidating rural residents and encouraging their participation in the diverse life of their home villages. All study participants stated that the integration of the village community is a necessity. A description of how teachers interact with public authorities and organizations is given. The example of Altai Krai and the Altai Republic shows that as a professional group, rural teachers actively participate in solving village problems, while acquiring the status of “village defenders.”
{"title":"The Social Functions of a Rural Teacher (on the Example of Altai Krai and the Altai Republic)","authors":"E. A. Popov","doi":"10.1080/10610154.2021.2133509","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/10610154.2021.2133509","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT The article evaluates the social functions of rural teachers and attempts to identify the internal noneconomic resources necessary to solve pressing social issues associated with rural life (including problems connected with alienation, alcoholism, and unemployment). The study tests the hypothesis that rural teachers are active participants in rural life. This work is based on the methodological resources of rural sociology, the sociology of education, and approaches formed within the framework of problems associated with social well-being and the quality of life. Using the results of a study based on semistructured interviews conducted in the rural areas of Altai Krai and the Altai Republic (N = 124), the social functions of teachers and their specific roles as professionals were determined. In addition, the article analyzes the role of rural teachers to ensure the resilience of rural residents. Resilience has been correlated with certain values and norms rooted in rural life (family, health, work, etc.), and rural teachers are often involved in preserving these values and norms. They provide support and assistance in solving specific social problems (raising children, overcoming difficult life situations, socializing adults and children, etc.). The active participation of teachers in the integration of the village community is also discussed. It was possible to identify which activities initiated by rural teachers are aimed at consolidating rural residents and encouraging their participation in the diverse life of their home villages. All study participants stated that the integration of the village community is a necessity. A description of how teachers interact with public authorities and organizations is given. The example of Altai Krai and the Altai Republic shows that as a professional group, rural teachers actively participate in solving village problems, while acquiring the status of “village defenders.”","PeriodicalId":85546,"journal":{"name":"Sociological research","volume":"59 1","pages":"100 - 114"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-11-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46372933","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-05-04DOI: 10.1080/10610154.2022.2111188
V. Radaev
Abstract The article applies a sociological approach to the study of different generations. The author, who has previously studied Millennials, now divides the generation into two age groups. The author identifies a special group of “3S” Millennials (standing for “smartphones,” “social networks,” and “slowing economy”) who have come of age during the period since 2008, which has been characterized by the long decline of the Russian economy and the massive spread of new technologies and digital user services. Data from the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey of the Health and Economic Welfare of the Population conducted by the National Research University Higher School of Economics (1994–2018) are used. The study shows that while Millennials are different in many ways from other generations, members of the generation also differ from each across multiple social characteristics. Part one of the article, which is published in this issue, shows that younger 3S Millennials started using new digital technologies at an earlier (adolescent) age and also continue to use them more often. They are better educated and also have more educated parents. They are more likely to delay important decisions associated with adulthood (marriage, first pregnancy and childbirth, and entry into the labor market). Many intergenerational and intragenerational differences remain significant even after introducing standard control variables and when neighboring generations are adjusted to a similar median age.
{"title":"Historical and Empirical Evidence for the Schism in the Millennial Generation (Part 1)","authors":"V. Radaev","doi":"10.1080/10610154.2022.2111188","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/10610154.2022.2111188","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The article applies a sociological approach to the study of different generations. The author, who has previously studied Millennials, now divides the generation into two age groups. The author identifies a special group of “3S” Millennials (standing for “smartphones,” “social networks,” and “slowing economy”) who have come of age during the period since 2008, which has been characterized by the long decline of the Russian economy and the massive spread of new technologies and digital user services. Data from the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey of the Health and Economic Welfare of the Population conducted by the National Research University Higher School of Economics (1994–2018) are used. The study shows that while Millennials are different in many ways from other generations, members of the generation also differ from each across multiple social characteristics. Part one of the article, which is published in this issue, shows that younger 3S Millennials started using new digital technologies at an earlier (adolescent) age and also continue to use them more often. They are better educated and also have more educated parents. They are more likely to delay important decisions associated with adulthood (marriage, first pregnancy and childbirth, and entry into the labor market). Many intergenerational and intragenerational differences remain significant even after introducing standard control variables and when neighboring generations are adjusted to a similar median age.","PeriodicalId":85546,"journal":{"name":"Sociological research","volume":"59 1","pages":"1 - 31"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-05-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47866887","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-05-04DOI: 10.1080/10610154.2022.2111190
V. Radaev
ABSTRACT In this concluding article, the author continues to present the results of his empirical analysis based on the division of the Millennial generation into two age groups. The author devotes particular attention to a special group of “3S” Millennials (standing for “smartphones,” “social networks,” and “slowing economy”) who have come of age during the period since 2008, which has been characterized by the long decline of the Russian economy and the massive spread of new technologies and digital user services. Data from the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey of the Health and Economic Welfare of the Population conducted by the National Research University Higher School of Economics (1994–2018) is used. The study shows that while Millennials are different in many ways from other generations, members of the generation also differ from each across multiple social characteristics. The second part of the article shows that younger 3S Millennials drink alcohol less often and in smaller quantities, smoke less, exercise more often, watch less TV, read more, participate more in cultural life and creative activities, are less religious, and are more optimistic regarding their financial situation and life in general. Many intergenerational and intragenerational differences remain significant even after introducing standard control variables and when neighboring generations are adjusted to a similar median age. In conclusion, four typical situations are identified that characterize the ratio of intergenerational to intragenerational differences.
{"title":"Historical and Empirical Evidence for the Schism in the Millennial Generation (Conclusion)","authors":"V. Radaev","doi":"10.1080/10610154.2022.2111190","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/10610154.2022.2111190","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT In this concluding article, the author continues to present the results of his empirical analysis based on the division of the Millennial generation into two age groups. The author devotes particular attention to a special group of “3S” Millennials (standing for “smartphones,” “social networks,” and “slowing economy”) who have come of age during the period since 2008, which has been characterized by the long decline of the Russian economy and the massive spread of new technologies and digital user services. Data from the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey of the Health and Economic Welfare of the Population conducted by the National Research University Higher School of Economics (1994–2018) is used. The study shows that while Millennials are different in many ways from other generations, members of the generation also differ from each across multiple social characteristics. The second part of the article shows that younger 3S Millennials drink alcohol less often and in smaller quantities, smoke less, exercise more often, watch less TV, read more, participate more in cultural life and creative activities, are less religious, and are more optimistic regarding their financial situation and life in general. Many intergenerational and intragenerational differences remain significant even after introducing standard control variables and when neighboring generations are adjusted to a similar median age. In conclusion, four typical situations are identified that characterize the ratio of intergenerational to intragenerational differences.","PeriodicalId":85546,"journal":{"name":"Sociological research","volume":"59 1","pages":"32 - 61"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-05-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47008483","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-11-02DOI: 10.1080/10610154.2021.1951026
O. L. Rybakovskii
ABSTRACT This article assesses the likelihood that the objectives for replacement of the population established by the President of the Russian Federation in the May 2018 Decree [1] (hereinafter the “Decree”) can be achieved. For each of the objectives, the author outlines the current situation, current trends, and the most likely outcomes. He surfaces the factors that either contribute to a solution to the indicated problems or aggravate them. In particular, any growth in or even simple maintenance of the current number of births will be hindered by the constantly decreasing number of women of active reproductive age (25–39 years of age) that has been observed since 2015. Women in this age range account for four-fifths of all births. 1 1. The study was performed with the financial support of RFBR, project no. 19-011-00626.All of the indicators that have not been footnoted in the article were calculated based on the Rosstat database: http//cbsd.gks.ru [2]. The number of women in this group will decline from 17.9 million in 2015 to 15.0 million in 2024 and then to 12.0 million in 2030. The task of reducing mortality from diseases of the circulatory system and from cancer will be hampered by the aging of the population; the inability of many members of the population to quickly break bad habits, such as smoking and regularly consuming alcohol to excess; the poor quality of consumed food and alcohol; and so on. In addition, in the future, as life expectancy (LE) increases in Russia, those who have been cured of diseases associated with other major causes of death will eventually begin to die from diseases of the circulatory system or from cancer. These diseases are the leading causes of death in countries with high LE. The author draws the following basic conclusions: It will be practically impossible to achieve the goal of “increasing the population of the country” (in accordance with the Decree) by reproduction alone in the near future. It will be necessary to achieve a balance by both increasing the birth rate and encouraging migration in order to solve the general demographic problems facing Russia (ensuring the growth of the country’s population; optimizing the distribution of the population across its territory in order to serve not only the economic but also the geopolitical interests of the state; compensating for volatile shifts in the country’s demographic structure; and so on).
{"title":"The Population Replacement of Russia: Objectives, Trends, Factors, and Possible Outcomes by 2024","authors":"O. L. Rybakovskii","doi":"10.1080/10610154.2021.1951026","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/10610154.2021.1951026","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT This article assesses the likelihood that the objectives for replacement of the population established by the President of the Russian Federation in the May 2018 Decree [1] (hereinafter the “Decree”) can be achieved. For each of the objectives, the author outlines the current situation, current trends, and the most likely outcomes. He surfaces the factors that either contribute to a solution to the indicated problems or aggravate them. In particular, any growth in or even simple maintenance of the current number of births will be hindered by the constantly decreasing number of women of active reproductive age (25–39 years of age) that has been observed since 2015. Women in this age range account for four-fifths of all births. 1 1. The study was performed with the financial support of RFBR, project no. 19-011-00626.All of the indicators that have not been footnoted in the article were calculated based on the Rosstat database: http//cbsd.gks.ru [2]. The number of women in this group will decline from 17.9 million in 2015 to 15.0 million in 2024 and then to 12.0 million in 2030. The task of reducing mortality from diseases of the circulatory system and from cancer will be hampered by the aging of the population; the inability of many members of the population to quickly break bad habits, such as smoking and regularly consuming alcohol to excess; the poor quality of consumed food and alcohol; and so on. In addition, in the future, as life expectancy (LE) increases in Russia, those who have been cured of diseases associated with other major causes of death will eventually begin to die from diseases of the circulatory system or from cancer. These diseases are the leading causes of death in countries with high LE. The author draws the following basic conclusions: It will be practically impossible to achieve the goal of “increasing the population of the country” (in accordance with the Decree) by reproduction alone in the near future. It will be necessary to achieve a balance by both increasing the birth rate and encouraging migration in order to solve the general demographic problems facing Russia (ensuring the growth of the country’s population; optimizing the distribution of the population across its territory in order to serve not only the economic but also the geopolitical interests of the state; compensating for volatile shifts in the country’s demographic structure; and so on).","PeriodicalId":85546,"journal":{"name":"Sociological research","volume":"58 1","pages":"141 - 157"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-11-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43181922","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-11-02DOI: 10.1080/10610154.2021.1951068
A.A. Osviannikov, L.V. Lakeeva
ABSTRACT The article explores the problem of the discrepancies between the careers that the Russian education system currently prepares students for and the needs of the labor market. Employers on the labor market and educational institutions cannot function effectively without an established mechanism for social exchange. However, the reality of the current situation is such that the current educational services market exists almost entirely independently of the labor market. A document-based content analysis has allowed us to identify key problems for the Russian labor market. These include a shortage of certain specialists, which is particularly glaring in certain fields; a high level of youth unemployment; a lack of demand for certain highly trained specializations and thus the inability of the country to effectively compete on the international market; and Russia’s lagging position in the technology field. The education system also faces a number of problems. Some of the most pronounced ones include the brain drain of qualified and talented workers abroad; the insufficient funding of the research community; the decline in the prestige and quality of education; and the development of shallow thought patterns among young people that have resulted from the problem of fragmented culture. All attempts by the state to ease this crisis situation have not moved past creative window dressing. They have avoided addressing the fundamental roots of the problem. Our analysis has revealed a basic discrepancy between the types of subjects that educational institutions currently teach students and the needs of the labor market. Educational institutions have proven themselves unable to flexibly respond to changes on the labor market, and they have ignored its demands. In fact, most Russian schools do not subscribe to a unified system to help children choose a future career path. Schools use a formal approach to providing vocational guidance for young people: At best, students take one-time tests and receive brochures from for-profit institutions of higher education. If a unified, systematic model for career counseling were developed based on a mutually beneficial cooperative relationship, we would be able to establish an effective mechanism for social exchange between educational institutions and the labor market.
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