{"title":"利用空间相互作用建模纳入邻里水平因素的地理概况","authors":"Kazuki Hirama, Kaeko Yokota, Yusuke Otsuka, Kazumi Watanabe, Naoto Yabe, Ryo Yokota, Yoshinori Hawai","doi":"10.1002/jip.1611","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>The aim of this study was to examine the applicability of methods that use spatial interaction modelling to predict the most probable area for an offender's residence. Tokyo, which is the capital of Japan and is divided into 1507 square-kilometre zones, was selected as the study area. We analysed 4316 criminal trips to commit residential burglaries by 1089 offenders who lived in Tokyo. The following neighbourhood-level factors, and a distance-decay effect between zones, were incorporated into the proposed model: the size of the residential population aged 15–59 years in origin zones, the numbers of households living in detached houses, newcomers, the number of police facilities in destination zones, and the spatial structures of the criminal trips. Search areas calculated by the proposed model were smaller than previous models, suggesting that neighbourhood-level factors are important for predicting the location of an offender's residence.</p>","PeriodicalId":46397,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Investigative Psychology and Offender Profiling","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8000,"publicationDate":"2023-01-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Geographical profiling incorporating neighbourhood-level factors using spatial interaction modelling\",\"authors\":\"Kazuki Hirama, Kaeko Yokota, Yusuke Otsuka, Kazumi Watanabe, Naoto Yabe, Ryo Yokota, Yoshinori Hawai\",\"doi\":\"10.1002/jip.1611\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p>The aim of this study was to examine the applicability of methods that use spatial interaction modelling to predict the most probable area for an offender's residence. Tokyo, which is the capital of Japan and is divided into 1507 square-kilometre zones, was selected as the study area. We analysed 4316 criminal trips to commit residential burglaries by 1089 offenders who lived in Tokyo. The following neighbourhood-level factors, and a distance-decay effect between zones, were incorporated into the proposed model: the size of the residential population aged 15–59 years in origin zones, the numbers of households living in detached houses, newcomers, the number of police facilities in destination zones, and the spatial structures of the criminal trips. Search areas calculated by the proposed model were smaller than previous models, suggesting that neighbourhood-level factors are important for predicting the location of an offender's residence.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":46397,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Journal of Investigative Psychology and Offender Profiling\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.8000,\"publicationDate\":\"2023-01-28\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Journal of Investigative Psychology and Offender Profiling\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"102\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/jip.1611\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"心理学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q4\",\"JCRName\":\"CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Investigative Psychology and Offender Profiling","FirstCategoryId":"102","ListUrlMain":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/jip.1611","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"心理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q4","JCRName":"CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY","Score":null,"Total":0}
Geographical profiling incorporating neighbourhood-level factors using spatial interaction modelling
The aim of this study was to examine the applicability of methods that use spatial interaction modelling to predict the most probable area for an offender's residence. Tokyo, which is the capital of Japan and is divided into 1507 square-kilometre zones, was selected as the study area. We analysed 4316 criminal trips to commit residential burglaries by 1089 offenders who lived in Tokyo. The following neighbourhood-level factors, and a distance-decay effect between zones, were incorporated into the proposed model: the size of the residential population aged 15–59 years in origin zones, the numbers of households living in detached houses, newcomers, the number of police facilities in destination zones, and the spatial structures of the criminal trips. Search areas calculated by the proposed model were smaller than previous models, suggesting that neighbourhood-level factors are important for predicting the location of an offender's residence.
期刊介绍:
The Journal of Investigative Psychology and Offender Profiling (JIP-OP) is an international journal of behavioural science contributions to criminal and civil investigations, for researchers and practitioners, also exploring the legal and jurisprudential implications of psychological and related aspects of all forms of investigation. Investigative Psychology is rapidly developing worldwide. It is a newly established, interdisciplinary area of research and application, concerned with the systematic, scientific examination of all those aspects of psychology and the related behavioural and social sciences that may be relevant to criminal.