A Test of the Association Between Racial Economic Threat and Racial Disparities in Jail Incarceration Across Counties in the United States

According to Blalock’s racial threat theory, “threat” posed by minority populations to majority populations leads to racial disparities in formal social control, such as incarceration. Economic threat occurs when the Black population has the economic resources to compete with the White population for jobs, wages, and housing. The majority reacts by increasing formal social control against minorities. Blalock further predicted that the relationship between economic threat and social control would be curvilinear, with a decreasing effect as economic threat increased, and that it would be moderated by the size of the Black population, being strongest when the Black population was small. This study tests Blalock’s predictions using a sample of 2,092 United States counties. Results indicate that the relationship between economic threat and disparity in jail rates is curvilinear and is moderated by the percent of the population that is Black, but not in a manner predicted by Blalock. Economic threat is negatively related to incarceration disparities, particularly in counties with larger Black populations. This negative relationship becomes stronger as economic threat increases. Disparities are diminished where Blacks are demographically and economically more powerful.