金融市场、通货膨胀与经济增长:不同政治结构下货币政策的影响

IF 3.5 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2023-09-01 DOI:10.1016/j.jpolmod.2023.08.003
Abdorasoul Sadeghi , Seyed Komail Tayebi , Soheil Roudari
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本研究通过利率对金融市场之间联系的影响来评估不同政治结构对经济增长的可能影响。为此,我们选择了两个治理结构不同的发展中经济体:伊朗和阿根廷。伊朗的政治结构受宗教影响,而阿根廷的政治结构不涉及宗教。我们首先评估了股票市场、银行存款和外汇市场(CM)之间的因果关系。然后,利用格兰杰因果检验和马尔可夫转换模型评估了市场和通货膨胀对经济增长的影响。结果表明,伊朗金融市场之间存在双向因果关系,阿根廷金融市场之间存在单向因果关系。市场影响着两国的经济增长。对于伊朗来说,利率这一货币政策工具对市场没有任何影响,而阿根廷的利率对市场则有很强的影响。因此,阿根廷中央银行可以通过市场之间的资金流动,通过自由改变与经济形势成比例的利率来影响经济增长。然而,伊朗央行没有这种可能性。换句话说,阿根廷积极应对通胀波动的中央银行与伊朗被动应对的中央银行是受宗教影响的政治结构中利率抑制的后果之一。
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Financial markets, inflation and growth: The impact of monetary policy under different political structures

This study assesses the likely effects of different political structures on economic growth by the effects of interest rate on the linkage between financial markets. For this aim, we chose two developing economies with different governance structures, Iran and Argentina. There is a political structure in Iran influenced by religion, whereas Argentina’s political structure does not deal with religion. We first assess the causality amongst the financial markets of the stock market, bank deposits, and the foreign currency market (CM). Then, the effects of the markets and inflation on economic growth are assessed using Granger-causality tests and Markov-switching models. The results show that there are bidirectional causalities between the financial markets in Iran, and unidirectional causalities in Argentina. The markets affect economic growth in the both countries. For Iran, the monetary policy instrument of interest rate indicates no causalities to the markets, whereas there are strong causalities from interest rate to the markets in Argentina. As a result, Argentinian Central Bank can affect economic growth through the money flow between the markets by freely changing interest rate proportioned with the economic situation. Whereas there is no such a possibility for Iran’s Central Bank. In other words, an active Central bank against the inflation volatility in Argentina versus a passive Central Bank in Iran is one of the consequences of the interest rate repression in a political structure influenced by religion.

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来源期刊
CiteScore
6.20
自引率
11.40%
发文量
76
期刊介绍: The Journal of Policy Modeling is published by Elsevier for the Society for Policy Modeling to provide a forum for analysis and debate concerning international policy issues. The journal addresses questions of critical import to the world community as a whole, and it focuses upon the economic, social, and political interdependencies between national and regional systems. This implies concern with international policies for the promotion of a better life for all human beings and, therefore, concentrates on improved methodological underpinnings for dealing with these problems.
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