基于现代人工智能技术的风力发电预测

Ibargüengoytia-González Pablo Héctor, Reyes Alberto, Borunda-Pacheco Mónica, García-López Uriel Alejandro
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引用次数: 0

摘要

鉴于能源需求的持续增长和对环境保护的兴趣,使用清洁能源取代化石燃料是一种全球趋势。风能是近年来世界上发展最快的可再生能源。然而,就墨西哥而言,在该国领土的某些地区推广使用它仍然存在一些困难。一个困难是提前知道有多少能量可以注入电网。本文介绍了基于多年气象信息的风力发电预测人工智能技术的发展。特别是,详细研究了贝叶斯网络在这些预测应用中的潜在应用。提出了一种基于动态贝叶斯网络的天气预报方法。该预测系统使用墨西哥瓦哈卡州国家电力和清洁能源研究所(INEEL)区域风能技术中心(CERT)的气象数据进行了测试。将结果与时间序列预测结果进行比较。结果表明,动态贝叶斯网络是一种很有前途的风力发电预测工具。
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Prediction of Wind Power Generation with Modern Artificial Intelli-gence Technology
In view of the continuous growth of energy demand and interest in environmental protection, the use of clean energy to replace fossil fuels is a global trend. Wind energy is the fastest growing renewable energy in the world in recent years. However, in the case of Mexico, there are still some difficulties in promoting its use in some areas of the national territory. One difficulty is knowing in advance how much energy can be injected into the grid. This paper introduces the development of artificial intelligence technology for wind power generation prediction based on multi-year meteorological information. In particular, the potential application of Bayesian network in these prediction applications is studied in detail. A weather forecasting method based on Dynamic Bayesian network (RBD) is proposed. The forecasting system was tested using meteorological data from the regional wind energy technology center (CERT) of the National Institute of Electricity and Clean Energy (INEEL) in Oaxaca, Mexico. The results are compared with the time series prediction results. The results show that dynamic Bayesian network is a promising wind power generation prediction tool.
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