明代中期河南省极端干旱事件及其社会影响比较分析

IF 1.9 4区 地球科学 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Weather Climate and Society Pub Date : 2022-08-05 DOI:10.1175/wcas-d-22-0015.1
Fangyu Tian, Xudong Chen, Yun Su
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引用次数: 1

摘要

对历史气候变化事件的分析可以加深对气候影响的理解,并提供应对干旱等极端事件的历史实例。本文收集了明代中期河南成化干旱(公元1483-1485年)、嘉靖干旱(公元1527-1529年)和万历干旱(公元1584-1589年)期间的干旱和饥荒史料。在此基础上,定义了平均干旱指数(ADI)、平均饥荒指数(AFI)和平均社会调节指数(ASRI),定量探讨极端干旱的社会影响差异。结果表明:(1)万历旱情最严重(1.59),嘉靖旱情次之(1.21),成化旱情次之(1.02);从灾情指数来看,嘉靖干旱灾情最严重(0.43),成化干旱灾情次之(0.30),万历干旱灾情次之(0.15)。(2)成化干旱、嘉靖干旱和万历干旱的ASRI值分别为3.90、3.90和4.54。结果表明,万历干旱时期社会调节能力最高,与其他两个干旱时期的调节能力相当。但在关键年份,嘉靖旱情的社会调节能力高于成化旱情,尤其是在缓解低等级旱情方面。(3)从历史文献来看,农业技术的进步、饥荒救济政策的进步和救济物资的变化极大地提高了社会应对极端干旱事件的能力。
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Comparative Analysis of Extreme Drought Events and Social Impacts in Henan Province During the Middle Ming Dynasty
The analysis of historical climate change events can deepen the understanding of climate impacts and provide historical examples of coping with extreme events like drought. The data from historical records on droughts and famines were collected during the Chenghua drought (1483-1485 AD), Jiajing drought (1527-1529 AD) and Wanli drought (1584-1589 AD) in Henan Province in the Mid Ming Dynasty. Based on this, the average drought index (ADI), average famine index (AFI) and the average social regulation index (ASRI) were defined to quantitatively explore the differences in the social impacts of extreme droughts. The results were as follows: (1) As for ADI, the Wanli drought was the most severe (1.59), followed by the Jiajing drought (1.21) and the Chenghua drought (1.02). In terms of AFI, the famine conditions were the most severe during the Jiajing drought (0.43), followed by Chenghua drought (0.30) and the Wanli drought (0.15). (2) The ASRI values in the Chenghua drought, Jiajing drought and Wanli drought were 3.90, 3.90 and 4.54, respectively. It could be concluded society showed the highest social regulation ability during the Wanli drought and showed the same level of the two other droughts. However, for the key years, the social regulation ability of the Jiajing drought was higher than that of Chenghua drought, especially in the alleviation of low-grade drought. (3) From historical documents, the progress of agricultural technology, the progress of famine relief policy and the change in relief supplies greatly improved the social ability to cope with the extreme drought events.
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来源期刊
Weather Climate and Society
Weather Climate and Society METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES-
CiteScore
3.40
自引率
13.60%
发文量
95
审稿时长
>12 weeks
期刊介绍: Weather, Climate, and Society (WCAS) publishes research that encompasses economics, policy analysis, political science, history, and institutional, social, and behavioral scholarship relating to weather and climate, including climate change. Contributions must include original social science research, evidence-based analysis, and relevance to the interactions of weather and climate with society.
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