动态决策环境中的不确定性信息传递

IF 1.9 4区 地球科学 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Weather Climate and Society Pub Date : 2022-10-01 DOI:10.1175/wcas-d-21-0186.1
Gala Gulacsik, S. Joslyn, J. Robinson, Chao Qin
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引用次数: 0

摘要

对于公众来说,威胁事件的可能性通常被简化为风险类别,如美国国家气象局目前发布的“监视”和“警告”。然而,研究(例如Joslyn和LeClerc)表明,明确的数字不确定性信息——例如30%——可以提高人们的理解和决策。这一好处是否扩展到用户必须处理多个预测更新的动态情况,目前尚不清楚。在这些情况下可能需要其他似然表达式,例如颜色编码。这里报道的实验研究比较了分类表达式“监视”和“警告”的效果,以及在多次更新的情况下龙卷风可能性的颜色编码和数字百分比概率表达式。在40次试验中,每一次都有7次更新的龙卷风预报,参与者决定是否以及何时避难以保护自己免受龙卷风的影响。在提供%机会信息的条件下,理解力、决策质量和信任度最高。颜色编码的可能性信息激发了最小的信任,并导致对可能性的最大高估和与所有表达式的严重性信息的混淆。
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Communicating Uncertainty Information in a Dynamic Decision Environment
The likelihood of threatening events is often simplified for members of the public and presented as risk categories such as the “watches” and “warnings” currently issued by National Weather Service in the United States. However, research (e.g., Joslyn and LeClerc) suggests that explicit numeric uncertainty information—for example, 30%—improves people’s understanding as well as their decisions. Whether this benefit extends to dynamic situations in which users must process multiple forecast updates is as yet unknown. It may be that other likelihood expressions, such as color coding, are required under those circumstances. The experimental study reported here compared the effect of the categorical expressions “watches” and “warnings” with both color-coded and numeric percent chance expressions of the likelihood of a tornado in a situation with multiple updates. Participants decided whether and when to take shelter to protect themselves from a tornado on each of 40 trials, each with seven updated tornado forecasts. Understanding, decision quality, and trust were highest in conditions that provided percent chance information. Color-coded likelihood information inspired the least trust and led to the greatest overestimation of likelihood and confusion with severity information of all expressions.
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来源期刊
Weather Climate and Society
Weather Climate and Society METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES-
CiteScore
3.40
自引率
13.60%
发文量
95
审稿时长
>12 weeks
期刊介绍: Weather, Climate, and Society (WCAS) publishes research that encompasses economics, policy analysis, political science, history, and institutional, social, and behavioral scholarship relating to weather and climate, including climate change. Contributions must include original social science research, evidence-based analysis, and relevance to the interactions of weather and climate with society.
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