平衡、追随或对冲:台湾在中国崛起时代的战略选择

IF 1.2 4区 社会学 Q3 POLITICAL SCIENCE Political Science Pub Date : 2021-01-02 DOI:10.1080/00323187.2021.1967765
T.Y. Wang, A. C. Tan
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引用次数: 3

摘要

摘要当小国面对崛起的大国时,它们有三种战略选择:平衡、联合和对冲。随着一个日益强大和自信的中国作为其邻国,台湾作为一个小国正处于这样一个难题中。这项研究利用过去二十年收集的调查数据,考察了台北的海峡两岸政策如何与公众的偏好密切相关。由于台湾公民拒绝按照北京的条件实现统一,因此这种捆绑政策从未被认为是一种可接受的策略。由于巨大的成本和相关风险,“纯粹”的平衡政策也令人不快。相反,岛上居民普遍支持搁置主权争端,对中国采取和解态度。因此,对冲已成为大多数台湾公民的首选战略选择。由于中国的侵略行为和美国对台湾的支持政策,公众对对冲政策的支持最近发生了变化。由于北京的强硬行为预计将持续下去,拜登政府将继续支持台湾,台北的战略选择可能会有更强的平衡成分。自2016年以来,冷而紧张的两岸关系预计将持续到台湾支持独立的现任政府任期结束后。
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Balancing, bandwagoning or hedging: Taiwan’s strategic choices in the era of a rising China
ABSTRACT Small states have three strategic options when they are confronted by a rising power: balancing, bandwagoning, and hedging. With an increasingly powerful and assertive China as its neighbour, Taiwan, as a small state, is in such a conundrum. Employing survey data collected during the past two decades, this study examines how Taipei’s cross-Strait policy has been closely associated with the public’s preferences. Because Taiwan citizens reject a unification under Beijing’s terms, the bandwagoning policy has never been considered as an acceptable strategy. A ‘pure’ balancing policy is also unpalatable due to the enormous costs and associated risks. Instead, the island citizens are generally supportive of setting aside the sovereignty dispute with a rapprochement approach towards China. Hedging has thus become a preferred strategic option for most Taiwan citizens. The public’s support for a hedging policy has shifted recently due to China’s aggressive conduct and America’s supportive policy towards Taiwan. Because Beijing’s assertive behaviour is expected to persist and the Biden administration will remain supportive of Taiwan, Taipei’s strategic choice is likely to have a stronger balancing component. The cold and tense cross-Strait relationship since 2016 is expected to continue beyond the tenure of Taiwan’s pro-independence incumbent government.
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来源期刊
Political Science
Political Science POLITICAL SCIENCE-
CiteScore
0.90
自引率
0.00%
发文量
13
期刊介绍: Political Science publishes high quality original scholarly works in the broad field of political science. Submission of articles with a regional focus on New Zealand and the Asia-Pacific is particularly encouraged, but content is not limited to this focus. Contributions are invited from across the political science discipline, including from the fields of international relations, comparative politics, political theory and public administration. Proposals for collections of articles on a common theme or debate to be published as special issues are welcome, as well as individual submissions.
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