Analysis of nonlinear evolution mechanism of power technology progress under the constraints of net-zero carbon dioxide emissions in China

Purpose Striving to achieve the goal of carbon neutrality before 2060 indicates that China, as the most extensive power system in the world and a country based on coal power, is imperative to improve the technical level of electric power utilization. This paper aims to explore the nonlinear evolution mechanism of power technology progress under the constraints of net-zero carbon dioxide emissions in China. Design/methodology/approach This paper, first, based on China’s provincial panel data from 2000 to 2019, uses global direction distance function to measure power technological progress. Second, the threshold regression model is used to explore the nonlinear relationship between carbon emission reduction constraints on electric power technological progress. Findings There is a significant inverted U-shaped relationship between China’s provincial carbon emission reduction constraints and electric power technological progress. Meanwhile, the scale of regional economic development has a significant moderating effect on the relationship between carbon emission reduction constraints and power technological progress. Research limitations/implications This paper puts forward targeted suggestions for perfecting regional carbon emission reduction policy and improving electric power technological progress. Originality/value Based on the global directional distance function, this paper extracts power as a production factor in total factor productivity and calculates the total factor electric power technological progress. This paper objectively reveals the influence mechanism of carbon emission reduction constraints on electric power technology progress based on the threshold regression model.