影响波罗的海干散货指数的全球市场因素

IF 0.5 Q4 TRANSPORTATION Pomorstvo-Scientific Journal of Maritime Research Pub Date : 2022-12-23 DOI:10.31217/p.36.2.8
Petar Pepur, I. Peronja, Stipe Laća
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引用次数: 1

摘要

波罗的海干散货指数被船运公司用作战略工具,用于监测不同类型散货船在预定航线上运输散货的运费每日变动。因此,航运公司的管理层非常重视能够有助于预测波罗的海干散货指数价格走势的因素。本文的主要目的是探讨美国的股票市场指数(标准普尔500指数)和中国的股票市场指数(上证综合指数),10年期债券收益率,CRB指数,WTI原油和黄金作为全球市场因素,同时也是领先的宏观经济全球指标,是否对BDI的运动产生影响。我们研究了2003年1月1日至2021年12月31日期间的月度数据,并使用多元线性回归方法分析了上述全球市场因素对BDI的影响。研究发现,在观察期内,标普500指数和SSECI股票指数以及CRB指数的走势对BDI的走势有正向影响,而黄金和WTI原油的走势对BDI有负向影响。本文的科学贡献体现在观察和探讨上述全球市场因素与BDI的关系,以往的论文观察时间较短,纳入了滞后的宏观经济指标,以及一些全球市场因素。
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Global market factors that impact Baltic Dry Index
The Baltic Dry Index is used as a strategic tool by shipping companies to monitor the daily movement of freight rates for the transportation of bulk cargoes on predetermined routes for the different types of bulk carriers. Therefore, the management of shipping companies pays great attention to the factors that can contribute to the prediction of the price movement of the Baltic Dry Index. Main goal of this paper is to explore if stock market indices of United States of America (S&P 500 stock index) and China (Shanghai stock exchange Composite index), 10 Year bond yield, CRB index, WTI Crude oil and Gold as global market factors, but also as leading macroeconomic global indicators, have impact on movement of BDI. We explored period from January 1, 2003 to December 31, 2021, with monthly data for which the multiple linear regression method was used to analyse mentioned global market factors impact on BDI. The research found that the movement of S&P 500 and SSECI stock indices and CRB index had a positive impact on the movement of BDI, while the movement of Gold and WTI crude oil had negative impact on BDI for the observed period. The scientific contribution of this paper is manifested through observation and exploring relationship of mentioned global market factors with BDI, previous papers observed shorter time period and included macroeconomic indicators which are lagging, together with some global market factors.
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来源期刊
CiteScore
1.50
自引率
0.00%
发文量
19
审稿时长
8 weeks
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