Bus rapid transit impacts on land uses and development over time in Bogotá and Quito

Despite the worldwide popularity of bus rapid transit (BRT), empirical evidence of its effects on land uses and development remains limited. This paper examines BRT’s impacts on land use and development in Bogotá and Quito, by using a parcel-level difference-in-differences research design. We estimate a propensity score-weighted regression model of parcel development characteristics in treatment and control areas. In Bogotá, although parcels in close proximity to the BRT are subject to fewer changes in terms of development intensity (changes in built-up area) in relation to parcels in the control area, they are more likely to change uses, shifting toward commercial activities. In Quito, the results are mixed; parcels in one BRT corridor are more likely to be subject to redevelopment, but the parcels in a more recent BRT corridor are less likely to be subject to development activity in relation to parcels in the control corridor. Taken together, our results suggest that changes in land use are important but frequently overlooked impacts produced by BRT implementation. Attempts to capture value from mass transit investments should also consider the ancillary planning decisions required to allow changes in land use.