投资者对坏消息和好消息的反应

IF 2.2 4区管理学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Accounting Horizons Pub Date : 2022-01-21 DOI:10.2308/horizons-2020-110

A. B. Josefy, Lynn Rees, Senyo Tse

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引用次数: 1

摘要

先前的研究一致表明，股价对坏消息管理指导的反应强于对好消息指导的反应。基于这一结果，一些研究使用指导的方向作为其可信度的代理。我们建议经理们机会主义地发布一些小的坏消息指导，目的是将盈利预期降低到可承受的水平。我们预计投资者认为小的坏消息指引不如小的好消息指引可信。我们发现，投资者对小的坏消息指引的反应不如对同等规模的好消息指引的反应。我们表明，投资者的怀疑是合理的，因为小的坏消息指引通常比普遍的共识分析师预测更不准确，而其他指引通常比普遍的共识分析师预测更准确。此外，自上世纪90年代中期以来，坏消息指引不如主流分析师预测准确的可能性有所增加。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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Investor Response to Bad News Versus Good News Management Earnings Guidance

Prior research consistently reports stronger stock price responses to bad news management guidance than to good news guidance. Based on this result, several studies use the direction of guidance as a proxy for its credibility. We propose that managers opportunistically issue some small bad news guidance for the purpose of reducing earnings expectations to beatable levels. We expect investors to view small bad news guidance as less credible than small good news guidance. We find that investors respond less to small bad news guidance than to similar magnitudes of good news guidance. We show that investor skepticism is justified because small bad news guidance is generally less accurate than the prevailing consensus analyst forecast, whereas other guidance is typically more accurate than the prevailing consensus analyst forecast. Furthermore, the likelihood that bad news guidance is less accurate than the prevailing analyst forecast has increased since the mid-1990s.

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来源期刊

Accounting Horizons BUSINESS, FINANCE-

CiteScore

3.80

自引率

4.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： Accounting Horizons is one of three association-wide journals published by the American Accounting Association AAA. This journal seeks to bridge academic and professional audiences with articles that focus on accounting, broadly defined, and that provide insights pertinent to the accounting profession. The contents of Accounting Horizons, therefore, should interest researchers, educators, practitioners, regulators, and students of accounting.