Uncovering the CO2 emissions of vehicles: A well-to-wheel approach

Carbon dioxide (CO₂) from road traffic is a non-negligible part of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and it is a challenge for the world today to accurately estimate road traffic CO₂ emissions and formulate effective emission reduction policies. Current emission inventories for vehicles have either low-resolution, or limited coverage, and they have not adequately focused on the CO₂ emission produced by new energy vehicles (NEV) considering fuel life cycle. To fill the research gap, this paper proposed a framework of a high-resolution well-to-wheel (WTW) CO₂ emission estimation for a full sample of vehicles and revealed the unique CO₂ emission characteristics of different categories of vehicles combined with vehicle behavior. Based on this, the spatiotemporal characteristics and influencing factors of CO₂ emissions were analyzed with the geographical and temporal weighted regression (GTWR) model. Finally, the CO₂ emissions of vehicles under different scenarios are simulated to support the formulation of emission reduction policies. The results show that the distribution of vehicle CO₂ emissions shows obvious heterogeneity in time, space, and vehicle category. By simply adjusting the existing NEV promotion policy, the emission reduction effect can be improved by 6.5%–13.5% under the same NEV penetration. If combined with changes in power generation structure, it can further release the emission reduction potential of NEVs, which can reduce the current CO₂ emissions by 78.1% in the optimal scenario.