基于前景理论的todim方法比较分析

A. Leoneti, L. Gomes
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引用次数: 0

摘要

前景理论为理性主体的决策建模提供了一个广泛而坚实的参考框架。在20世纪90年代初,前景理论的结构被用来提出一种基于配对比较过程的辅助多准则决策的方法。本文中报道的研究根据经验评估了原始TODIM方法的数学模型及其文献中可用的变体对前景理论的依从性,并将其与不使用该理论的多准则方法进行了比较。通过比较分析,我们意识到,TODIM方法在多准则决策辅助背景下结合前景理论的合理性的不同变体仍然没有给决策辅助背景带来已经整合的理论的好处。因此,建议进行进一步的研究,以提高前景理论在TODIM方法结构中的依从性,从而使综合决策理论的好处带来更好的结果,特别是从将该方法用于预测的角度来看。
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Comparative analysis of the todim method adherence to prospect theory
Prospect Theory provides a broad and solid frame of reference for modeling the decision making of rational agents. In the early 1990s, the structure of Prospect Theory was used to propose a method to aid a multicriteria decision based on the process of paired comparison. The research reported in this article has empirically assessed the adherence of the mathematical model of the original TODIM method, together with its variations available in the literature, to Prospect Theory and compared them with a multicriteria method that does not use that theory. From a comparative analysis, it was realized that the different variations of the TODIM method regarding the incorporation of Prospect Theory’s rationality within the context of Multicriteria Decision Aid still do not bring the benefits of an already consolidated theory to the context of decision-making aid. Thus, it is suggested that further studies be conducted to improve the adherence of Prospect Theory within the structure of the TODIM method, so that the benefits of a consolidated theory of decision lead to better results, notably from the perspective of using the method for the purposes of forecast.
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