捷克经济的产出差距:DSGE方法

IF 0.4 Q4 ECONOMICS Review of Economic Perspectives Pub Date : 2019-06-01 DOI:10.2478/revecp-2019-0008
Jakub Bechný
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引用次数: 3

摘要

摘要本文提出了捷克经济动态随机一般均衡模型估计的产出缺口的三个测度。我们认为,对商业周期最合理的描述提供了产出缺口,该缺口被定义为偏离灵活的产出价格水平,而这仅仅是由永久性增长冲击产生的。我们的模型表明,2006-2008年经济过热和随后的2008-2009年衰退在很大程度上可归因于世界经济以及进出口部门的发展,而2012-2013年的衰退主要是由不利的国内需求和成本冲击共同造成的。
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Output gap in the Czech economy: DSGE approach
Abstract This paper presents three measures of the output gap estimated by a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of the Czech economy. We argue that the most plausible description of the business cycle provides the output gap defined as a deviation from a flexible price level of output, which is generated solely by permanent growth shocks. Our model shows that 2006-2008 overheating of the economy and the following 2008-2009 slump can be largely attributed to development in a world economy and export and import sectors, while the 2012-2013 recession was caused mainly by a combination of adverse domestic demand and cost shocks.
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来源期刊
CiteScore
1.40
自引率
0.00%
发文量
10
审稿时长
38 weeks
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