Modeling the effects of climate change on agricultural productivity: evidence from Himachal Pradesh, India

This study examined the impact of climate change on yield, production and cropped areas of rice, wheat, gram and maize in Himachal Pradesh (Province), India, from 1970 to 2019 using the Cobb–Douglas production function approach (CDPFA). Euler’s theorem and marginal impact analytical technique (MIAT) were applied to determine the nature and degree of homogeneity and projected values of the selected crop yields, production and cropped areas. The results revealed that climate change significantly affects the yield, production and cropped areas of Himachal Pradesh. However, the impact of climatic factors significantly varied according to the crops. Based on Euler’s theorem, the findings revealed a decreasing return to scale for these crops’ yield, production and cropped area function. The projected estimates showed that rice, wheat and gram production and yields are expected to decline significantly by the 2040s, 2060s, 2080s and 2100s. The projected cropped area of rice and wheat may increase by the 2040s, 2060s and 2080s due to climate change, but after that, the state may experience a declining trend in both crops. On the other hand, the projected cropped areas of maize have shown an upward trend over the years. In conclusion, agricultural production in the state is at an alarming stage due to climate change and requires significant policy intervention. Farmers should use appropriate agricultural technologies, mixed cropping patterns, advanced irrigation facilities and crop insurance policies to reduce the negative consequences of climate change in the agricultural sector of Himachal Pradesh.