Pandemic, lockdown and the stalled urbanization of welfare regimes in Southern Africa

While Covid-19 caused few fatalities across most of Africa – with the notable exception of South Africa – the indirect economic effects were substantial, especially in urban areas. International organizations encouraged governments to expand their provision, especially for the urban poor. South Africa extended temporarily its already considerable system of social protection and introduced new implementation systems. Elsewhere, governments that had hitherto appeared ambivalent about social protection resisted major reforms, even on a temporary basis. In Zambia, the government committed considerable resources to small farmers but ignored almost entirely cash transfers to the poor. Botswana provided food parcels but did not expand its social grant programmes. The shock of Covid-19 in Southern Africa did not prove to be a ‘critical juncture’: Powerful pro-reform coalitions did not form to shift governments onto new policy paths. National governments were generally reluctant either to introduce programmes that were targeted on the urban poor specifically or to allow countrywide emergency programmes to become permanent. The crisis thus did not lead to any clear ‘urbanisation’ of welfare regimes in the region, despite the disproportionate effect of the crisis on the urban poor.