斯洛伐克的预测分析和预测模型后欧盟国家的逃税行为

IF 7.6 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Oeconomia Copernicana Pub Date : 2021-09-27 DOI:10.24136/oc.2021.023
J. Dobrovič, R. Rajnoha, P. Šuleř
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引用次数: 3

摘要

研究背景:逃税是政府面临的一个紧迫挑战,因为达到足够的税收水平可以实现足够的可持续经济发展。因此,研究的动机是查明欧盟国家的情况。文章目的:主要研究目标是确定欧盟国家逃税的程度,随后具体关注计量经济预测模型,并预测斯洛伐克作为V4中该领域表现最差的国家的未来发展。方法:本研究主要基于对以增值税缺口为基础的逃税领域选定的统计指标的检验。该研究的数据来自EUROSTAT数据库和国际系统VIES,时间为2000年至2017年。除了面板图之外,主要使用聚类分析、t检验、时间序列分析和4个基本模型的时间序列趋势分析来检验研究假设:线性趋势、二次趋势、增长曲线模型和S曲线模型。在平均绝对百分比误差(MAPE)的基础上,选择S曲线模型作为预测逃税的确定模型。调查结果和增加值:根据聚类分析的结果,欧盟国家按增值税缺口值分为五个参考组,使用增值税缺口在总GDP值中的百分比份额。该研究还为预测斯洛伐克作为该领域V4中表现最差的国家的未来增值税缺口提供了一个独特的方法框架和一个独特经济计量模型,适用于其他V4和欧盟国家。研究结果还使欧盟国家,特别是斯洛伐克和其他V4国家的政策制定者能够在逃税方面与欧盟参考国家进行明确比较,并随后采取适当措施提高该领域的有效性和绩效。
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Tax evasion in the EU countries following a predictive analysis and a forecast model for Slovakia
Research background: Tax evasion is an urgent challenge for governments, as reaching sufficient level of tax revenues enable adequate sustainable economic development. The motivation for the research was thus the identification of the situation in the EU countries.  Purpose of the article: The main research objective was to identify the extent of tax evasion in the EU countries, with a subsequent specific focus on the econometric predictive models and a forecast of their future development in the case of Slovakia as the poorest performing country of the V4 in this area.  Methods: The research was primarily based on testing selected statistical indicators in the field of tax evasions expressed on the basis of the VAT gap. The data for the research was obtained from the EUROSTAT database and the international system VIES for the period between 2000 and 2017. In addition to panel graphs, the research hypotheses were tested primarily using a cluster analysis, t-test, time series analysis, and an analysis of the time series trend with 4 basic models: linear trend, quadratic trend, growth curve model, and S-curve model. On the basis of the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), the S-Curve model was selected as the determining model of predicting tax evasion.  Findings & value added: Based on the results of the cluster analysis, the EU countries were divided into five reference groups by the VAT gap value, using the VAT gap percentage share on the overall GDP value. The research also provides a unique methodological framework and a unique econometric model for predicting the future VAT gap in Slovakia as the poorest performing country of the V4 in this area, which is applicable to other V4 and EU countries. The research results also enable policy-makers in the EU countries and specifically also in Slovakia and other V4 countries to compare themselves explicitly with the reference countries of the EU in terms of tax evasion and subsequently adopt adequate measures to improve the effectiveness and performance in this field.
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来源期刊
CiteScore
13.70
自引率
5.90%
发文量
26
审稿时长
24 weeks
期刊介绍: The Oeconomia Copernicana is an academic quarterly journal aimed at academicians, economic policymakers, and students studying finance, accounting, management, and economics. It publishes academic articles on contemporary issues in economics, finance, banking, accounting, and management from various research perspectives. The journal's mission is to publish advanced theoretical and empirical research that contributes to the development of these disciplines and has practical relevance. The journal encourages the use of various research methods, including falsification of conventional understanding, theory building through inductive or qualitative research, first empirical testing of theories, meta-analysis with theoretical implications, constructive replication, and a combination of qualitative, quantitative, field, laboratory, and meta-analytic approaches. While the journal prioritizes comprehensive manuscripts that include methodological-based theoretical and empirical research with implications for policymaking, it also welcomes submissions focused solely on theory or methodology.
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