CERESMIP:研究地球能量不平衡最近趋势的气候模拟协议

IF 3.3 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Frontiers in Climate Pub Date : 2023-07-03 DOI:10.3389/fclim.2023.1202161
G. Schmidt, T. Andrews, S. Bauer, P. Durack, N. Loeb, V. Ramaswamy, N. Arnold, M. Bosilovich, J. Cole, L. Horowitz, G. Johnson, J. Lyman, B. Medeiros, T. Michibata, D. Olonscheck, D. Paynter, Shivaranjan Raghuraman, Michael Schulz, Daisuke Takasuka, V. Tallapragada, P. Taylor, T. Ziehn
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引用次数: 1

摘要

云和地球辐射能系统(CERES)项目现在已经产生了20多年来关于地球能量不平衡(EEI)的观测数据,并揭示了反射短波和发射长波大气顶部辐射成分的实质性趋势。现有的气候模式模拟表明,这些趋势与纯粹的内部变率不相容,但趋势的全部幅度和分解超出了模式的范围。不幸的是,耦合模型比较项目(第6阶段)(CMIP6)协议仅使用到2014年的观测强迫(以及此后的共享社会经济路径(SSP)预测),此外,自CMIP6输入被定义以来,许多“观测到的”驱动因素已经大幅更新。最值得注意的是,对海表温度(SST)的估计已经进行了修订,现在显示出自1979年以来上升幅度高达50%的趋势,特别是在南半球。此外,对短寿命气溶胶和气相排放的估计也已大大更新。这些修订可能会对模型模拟的EEI产生实质性影响。因此,我们提出了一个新的、相对低成本的模式比较,即CERESMIP,其目标是CERES时期(2000年至今),其强迫至少更新到2021年底。重点将放在大气模拟上,使用1990年至2021年更新的海温、强迫和排放。感兴趣的关键指标将是EEI和大气反馈,因此分析将受益于卫星云观测模拟器的输出。第1级请求将只包括amip式模拟的集合,而第2级请求将包括应用强迫、大气成分、单一和除一种强迫响应之外的所有强迫响应的不确定性。我们提出了一些初步结果,并邀请广泛的模型组参与。
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CERESMIP: a climate modeling protocol to investigate recent trends in the Earth's Energy Imbalance
The Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) project has now produced over two decades of observed data on the Earth's Energy Imbalance (EEI) and has revealed substantive trends in both the reflected shortwave and outgoing longwave top-of-atmosphere radiation components. Available climate model simulations suggest that these trends are incompatible with purely internal variability, but that the full magnitude and breakdown of the trends are outside of the model ranges. Unfortunately, the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (Phase 6) (CMIP6) protocol only uses observed forcings to 2014 (and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) projections thereafter), and furthermore, many of the ‘observed' drivers have been updated substantially since the CMIP6 inputs were defined. Most notably, the sea surface temperature (SST) estimates have been revised and now show up to 50% greater trends since 1979, particularly in the southern hemisphere. Additionally, estimates of short-lived aerosol and gas-phase emissions have been substantially updated. These revisions will likely have material impacts on the model-simulated EEI. We therefore propose a new, relatively low-cost, model intercomparison, CERESMIP, that would target the CERES period (2000-present), with updated forcings to at least the end of 2021. The focus will be on atmosphere-only simulations, using updated SST, forcings and emissions from 1990 to 2021. The key metrics of interest will be the EEI and atmospheric feedbacks, and so the analysis will benefit from output from satellite cloud observation simulators. The Tier 1 request would consist only of an ensemble of AMIP-style simulations, while the Tier 2 request would encompass uncertainties in the applied forcing, atmospheric composition, single and all-but-one forcing responses. We present some preliminary results and invite participation from a wide group of models.
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来源期刊
Frontiers in Climate
Frontiers in Climate Environmental Science-Environmental Science (miscellaneous)
CiteScore
4.50
自引率
0.00%
发文量
233
审稿时长
15 weeks
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