The nonlinear effects of air pollution on criminal behavior: evidence from Mexico City and New York

This article proposes an inverted U-shape relationship between air pollution and criminal behavior. Exposure increases criminality by raising criminals’ taste for risk and violent behavior while also reducing it by changing the number of felons and crime opportunities in the market through exacerbated morbidity and avoidance behavior. I illustrate both mechanisms with an expected utility model of the decision to delict and a simplified search and matching frictions model between criminals and crime opportunities. Linear, quadratic, and nonparametric Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood estimator panel models confirm this bell-shaped relationship for Mexico City and New York, suggesting that the linear association between pollution and criminality uncovered by late studies may be better estimated with nonlinear models.