人的因素:房地产开发过程中的“未知的未知”

IF 1.6 Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE Journal of Property Investment & Finance Pub Date : 2021-12-20 DOI:10.1108/jpif-11-2021-0099
Elaine Worzala, D. Wyman
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引用次数: 1

摘要

目的波动性、不确定性、复杂性和模糊性(VUCA)是军方用来描述他们经常行动的环境的术语。本文探讨了如何利用这一决策框架更好地为房地产投资和开发提供信息。为了庆祝本刊创刊40周年,我们还探讨了VUCA如何与James A. Graaskamp博士的教诲相关联并扩展,James A. Graaskamp博士在同一年发表了他的开创性作品《房地产开发基础》(1981)。在那篇文章中,他强调了关注人为因素的重要性,即房地产的消费者。设计/方法论/方法这是一篇关于替代决策框架的思想文章,可以帮助捕捉商业房地产投资者和开发商目前所处的动态环境。VUCA抓住了在一个不断加速的、不可预测的变化世界中预测未来的困难。在当今瞬息万变的世界中,这一点尤为重要,这不仅是因为当前的COVID-19大流行,还因为proptech行业的指数级增长,以及与气候变化相关的风险和机遇不断增加,气候变化继续影响建筑环境。这不是一个传统的实证研究项目。我们提出了另一种框架,用于思考在当前和未来动荡、不确定、复杂和模棱两可的时期做出投资决策。此外,还强调了多学科培训和人的因素的重要性。研究的局限性/意义本研究没有局限性,因为这是作者的想法。其影响是帮助房地产投资者、开发商和教育工作者更好地了解他们所处的环境。与传统分析相比,uca更好地捕捉了房地产投资的动态性质。它有助于人们更好地分析风险和回报,但也要承认,有很多事情是你无法预测的,有很多外生变量,有时会完全改变游戏规则。灵活性和适应性是在VUCA环境中工作的基本工具。此外,人的因素扮演着越来越重要的角色,房地产投资者和开发商清楚地认识到这一点,专注于消费者可能会更成功。原创性/价值我们认为这是VUCA第一次在房地产学术文献中被使用。
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The human factor: the “unknown unknowns” in the real estate development process
PurposeVolatility, Uncertainty, Complexity and Ambiguity (VUCA) are terms the military have coined to describe the environment they often operate in. This paper examines how this decision-making framework can be used to better inform real estate investment and development. In celebration of this journal's 40th anniversary, we also explore how VUCA can be related to and expand on the teachings of Dr. James A. Graaskamp who published his seminal piece on the Fundamentals of Real Estate Development (1981) the same year. In that piece, he highlights the importance of paying attention to the human factor, the consumers of real estate.Design/methodology/approachThis is a thought piece on an alternative decision-making framework that can help capture the dynamic environment that commercial real estate investors and developers are currently working in. VUCA captures the difficulty of predicting the future in a world of accelerating, unpredictable change. This is particularly important in today's rapidly changing world caused not only by the current COVID-19 pandemic but also the exponential growth of the proptech industry as well as the increasing risks and opportunities associated with climate change that continues to impact the built environment.FindingsThis is not a traditional research project with empirical findings. We are presenting an alternative framework for thinking about making investment decisions in these current volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous times today and in the future. In addition, the importance of multidisciplinary training and the human factor are stressed.Research limitations/implicationsThere are no limitations to this research as it is the ideas of the authors. Implications are to help real estate investors, developers and educators better understand the environment that they are working in.Practical implicationsVUCA captures better the dynamic nature of real estate investments compared to traditional analysis. It helps one better analyze the risks and returns but also to acknowledge that there is a lot you cannot predict and there are many exogenous variables that can, at times, completely change the rules of the game. Flexibility and adaptability are essential tools for working in a VUCA environment. In addition, the human factor plays an increasingly important role and real estate investors and developers that clearly understand this and focus on the consumer will likely be more successful.Originality/valueWe believe that this is the first time that VUCA has been used in the real estate academic literature.
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来源期刊
CiteScore
3.50
自引率
23.10%
发文量
33
期刊介绍: Fully refereed papers on practice and methodology in the UK, continental Western Europe, emerging markets of Eastern Europe, China, Australasia, Africa and the USA, in the following areas: ■Academic papers on the latest research, thinking and developments ■Law reports assessing new legislation ■Market data for a comprehensive review of current research ■Practice papers - a forum for the exchange of ideas and experiences
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