U.S. Lessons from Russia's War on Ukraine

W hat lessons should the United States draw from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine? While the invasion has been a shock to the European global and security architecture and a humanitarian tragedy, it has also been a laboratory for understanding the future of warfare. This essay reviews the major lessons Washington has learned and provides recommendations to policymakers. The invasion has sparked an intense debate about how to deal with the “two peer challenger” problem and whether the United States can provide support to Ukraine while still meeting other demands, such as countering a revisionist China in the Indo-Pacific. This essay argues that the sides of this debate are in fact further apart in rhetoric than reality and that there is an emerging broad consensus on some of the steps necessary to deal with the two-peer-challenger problem. It also reviews lessons learned related to military basics, emerging technology, Taiwan, nuclear deterrence, and other key issues. The essay recommends that the United States (1) develop a defense strategy and force posture capable of dealing with China and Russia simultaneously, (2) increase defense spending, (3) adapt defense innovation adoption, (4) augment its security assistance program, and (5) strengthen nuclear deterrence.