La estrategia de Irán ante el proceso de paz de Afganistán. Factores condicionantes: seguridad y liderazgo regional

espanolEn los ultimos anos se ha impuesto la certeza de que, en el conflicto afgano, la paz solo sera posible tras un acuerdo en el que deben concurrir los principales actores regionales. Iran es uno de los mas relevantes. Para muchos analistas, la postura de Teheran es dificil de predecir porque sus objetivos en su relacion con Afganistan han ido variando en el tiempo, en funcion de factores dificiles de identificar. A lo largo de este articulo se demostrara que, muy al contrario, Iran ha demostrado historicamente unos intereses estrategicos claros y estables respecto a su vecino oriental, que son los que determinaran su postura ante el futuro de Afganistan. Por encima de intereses coyunturales, o afinidades etnicas, religiosas o culturales, la postura de Iran ante el proceso de paz esta determinada por esos intereses estrategicos que han guiado su politica regional de manera coherente desde el triunfo de la Revolucion Islamica. Esa estrategia se ha tenido que ir adaptando a los profundos cambios producidos en su entorno geopolitico, pero ha sido este entorno y no sus intereses estrategicos los que han variado durante estas decadas. EnglishThere is a general agreement on the idea that in the Afghan conflict, peace will only be possible after an agreement in which the main regional actors must concur. Iran is one of the most relevant. For many analysts, Tehran's position is difficult to predict because its objectives in its relationship with Afghanistan have varied over time, depending on factors that are difficult to identify. Throughout this article it will be shown that, quite to the contrary, Iran has historically demonstrated clear and stable strategic interests vis-a-vis its eastern neighbor, which are what will determine its position on the future of Afghanistan. Over and above conjunctural interests, or ethnic, religious or cultural affinities, Iran's position towards the peace process is determined by those strategic interests that have consistently guided its regional policy since the triumph of the Islamic Revolution. This strategy had to be adapted to the profound changes produced in its geopolitical environment, but it has been this environment and not its strategic interests that have changed during these decades.