波罗的海集水区东部当前气象状况的平均和极端特征的区域变异性

L. Kitaev, I. Danilovich, E. M. Akent’eva, Grigory A. Tyusov, I. V. Buyakov
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引用次数: 0

摘要

评估了现代气象制度的区域异质性特征,作为对大规模气候变化现有估计的改进——以列宁格勒地区为例,波罗的海流域东部和俄罗斯联邦邻近主体的附近领土(该地区北部),以及白俄罗斯共和国境内的Zapadnaya Dvina流域(该地区南部)。冬季地表气温和雪水当量(以下简称雪藏)存在显著差异,该地区南部降水量相似,年际和长期变化更为强烈。该地区的共同特征是,1月至3月的长期大气环流指数变化仅与地表气温变化存在显著相关性,并且具有相似异常幅度的异常年份数量存在微小差异。地表气温对各地积雪的长期变化贡献最大,这在该地区南部最为明显。地表气温长期变化的转折点在该地区的北部和南部重合,总降水过程中的转折点不重合。在没有重合和异常幅度相似的情况下,该地区北部和南部长期系列特征中的异常数量(超过标准差)差异不大(正负值范围内有9-12例)。区域北部地表气温极值(极值百分位数)的取值范围低于南部,小百分位数的变异性超过大百分位数;平均气温的长期上升速度伴随着该地区北部小百分位数和南部大百分位数的显著上升。降水量的极端阈值及其标准偏差在全国范围内变化不大;最大值的正趋势和最小阈值的负趋势较小,与平均总降水量的小幅增加一致。从积雪平均值的空间分布来看,其极小阈值和极大阈值在该地区北部的值均高于南部;在该地区北部,1985-2002年期间的百分位数最低。
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Regional variability of the mean and extreme characteristics of the present meteorological regime of the eastern part of the Baltic Sea catchment
The features of the regional heterogeneity of the modern meteorological regime are assessed, as a refinement of existing estimates of large-scale climate changes – for the eastern part of the Baltic Sea catchment on the example of the Leningrad Region and nearby territories of neighbouring subjects of the Russian Federation (northern part of the region), as well as the Zapadnaya Dvina catchment within the Republic of Belarus (southern part of the region). Significant differences in surface air temperature and snow water equivalent (hereinafter referred to as snow storage) were revealed for the winter period, with similar precipitation, more intense interannual and long-term changes in the southern part of the region. The common feature for the region is the presence of a significant correlation of the long-term January – March atmospheric circulation indices variability only with the variability of surface air temperature, as well as minor differences in the number of anomalous years with similar anomaly amplitudes. Surface air temperature has the greatest contribution to the long-term variability of snow storage everywhere, which is most pronounced in the south of the region. The turning points in the long-term variability of surface air temperature coincide in the north and south of the region, the turning points in the course of total precipitation do not coincide. The number of anomalies (exceeding the standard deviation) in the long-term series of characteristics in the northern and southern parts of the region differ little (9–12 cases in the positive and negative ranges of values) in the absence of coincidences and the similarity of the amplitude of the anomalies. The range of values of extreme threshold values (extreme percentiles) of surface air temperature in the north of the region is lower than the range of values in the south, the variability of small percentiles exceeds the variability of large ones; the rate of long-term increase in average temperatures is accompanied by a significant increase in small percentiles in the north and large percentiles in the south of the region. The values of extreme threshold values of precipitation and their standard deviation vary little across the territory; positive trends in maximums and negative trends in minimum thresholds are small, consistent with a slight increase in mean total precipitation. According to the spatial distribution of average values of snow storage, the values of their extremely small and large threshold values in the north of the region are higher than in the south; in the north of the region, the values of percentiles in the interval 1985–2002 stand out as the lowest.
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