{"title":"2000-2021年普京执政期间俄罗斯与土耳其地缘政治风险的溢出效应","authors":"Emmanouil M. L. Economou, N. Kyriazis","doi":"10.1515/peps-2021-0021","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This paper sets out to explore the nexus between Russia and Turkey regarding their geopolitical uncertainty measures (GPR) during the Putin Administration era in Russia. The innovative Caldara and Iacoviello indices and the Vector Autoregressive (VAR) methodology are adopted. This study sheds light on the series of geopolitical events that have taken place in Russia and Turkey in recent decades. Empirical outcomes reveal that Turkish geopolitical uncertainty is a weak influencer that increases Russian GPR in the short-term while decreasing it in the medium-term. The reverse effect does not hold. The nexus between geopolitical risk in Turkey and Russia is found to be unstable. Uncertainty in Turkey constitutes both a negative and a positive determinant of geopolitical stability in Russia, depending on the time horizon of the impact. Russia could take advantage of Turkish positive effects in the medium-run. This could be alarming for investors but could also prove beneficial as they should not invest in Russian assets when the country’s geopolitical risk is elevated due to Turkey’s geopolitical instability. Additionally, it is documented that energy financial markets in Russia are not influential on geopolitical uncertainty.","PeriodicalId":44635,"journal":{"name":"Peace Economics Peace Science and Public Policy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.7000,"publicationDate":"2021-11-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"5","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Spillovers Between Russia’s and Turkey’s Geopolitical Risk During the 2000–2021 Putin Administration\",\"authors\":\"Emmanouil M. L. Economou, N. Kyriazis\",\"doi\":\"10.1515/peps-2021-0021\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"Abstract This paper sets out to explore the nexus between Russia and Turkey regarding their geopolitical uncertainty measures (GPR) during the Putin Administration era in Russia. The innovative Caldara and Iacoviello indices and the Vector Autoregressive (VAR) methodology are adopted. This study sheds light on the series of geopolitical events that have taken place in Russia and Turkey in recent decades. Empirical outcomes reveal that Turkish geopolitical uncertainty is a weak influencer that increases Russian GPR in the short-term while decreasing it in the medium-term. The reverse effect does not hold. The nexus between geopolitical risk in Turkey and Russia is found to be unstable. Uncertainty in Turkey constitutes both a negative and a positive determinant of geopolitical stability in Russia, depending on the time horizon of the impact. Russia could take advantage of Turkish positive effects in the medium-run. This could be alarming for investors but could also prove beneficial as they should not invest in Russian assets when the country’s geopolitical risk is elevated due to Turkey’s geopolitical instability. Additionally, it is documented that energy financial markets in Russia are not influential on geopolitical uncertainty.\",\"PeriodicalId\":44635,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Peace Economics Peace Science and Public Policy\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":1.7000,\"publicationDate\":\"2021-11-02\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"5\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Peace Economics Peace Science and Public Policy\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1515/peps-2021-0021\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"POLITICAL SCIENCE\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Peace Economics Peace Science and Public Policy","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1515/peps-2021-0021","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"POLITICAL SCIENCE","Score":null,"Total":0}
Spillovers Between Russia’s and Turkey’s Geopolitical Risk During the 2000–2021 Putin Administration
Abstract This paper sets out to explore the nexus between Russia and Turkey regarding their geopolitical uncertainty measures (GPR) during the Putin Administration era in Russia. The innovative Caldara and Iacoviello indices and the Vector Autoregressive (VAR) methodology are adopted. This study sheds light on the series of geopolitical events that have taken place in Russia and Turkey in recent decades. Empirical outcomes reveal that Turkish geopolitical uncertainty is a weak influencer that increases Russian GPR in the short-term while decreasing it in the medium-term. The reverse effect does not hold. The nexus between geopolitical risk in Turkey and Russia is found to be unstable. Uncertainty in Turkey constitutes both a negative and a positive determinant of geopolitical stability in Russia, depending on the time horizon of the impact. Russia could take advantage of Turkish positive effects in the medium-run. This could be alarming for investors but could also prove beneficial as they should not invest in Russian assets when the country’s geopolitical risk is elevated due to Turkey’s geopolitical instability. Additionally, it is documented that energy financial markets in Russia are not influential on geopolitical uncertainty.
期刊介绍:
The journal accepts rigorous, non-technical papers especially in research methods in peace science, but also regular papers dealing with all aspects of the peace science field, from pure abstract theory to practical applied research. As a guide to topics: - Arms Control and International Security - Artificial Intelligence and Cognitive Studies - Behavioral Studies - Conflict Analysis and Management - Cooperation, Alliances and Games - Crises and War Studies - Critical Economic Aspects of the Global Crises - Deterrence Theory - Empirical and Historical Studies on the Causes of War - Game, Prospect and Related Theory - Harmony and Conflict - Hierarchy Theory