2000-2021年普京执政期间俄罗斯与土耳其地缘政治风险的溢出效应

IF 1.7 Q2 POLITICAL SCIENCE Peace Economics Peace Science and Public Policy Pub Date : 2021-11-02 DOI:10.1515/peps-2021-0021
Emmanouil M. L. Economou, N. Kyriazis
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引用次数: 5

摘要

摘要本文旨在探讨普京执政时期俄罗斯与土耳其在地缘政治不确定性措施(GPR)方面的关系。采用了创新的Caldara和Iacoviello指数和向量自回归(VAR)方法。这项研究揭示了近几十年来在俄罗斯和土耳其发生的一系列地缘政治事件。实证结果显示,土耳其地缘政治不确定性对俄罗斯探地雷达短期上升、中期下降的影响较弱。相反的效果并不成立。土耳其和俄罗斯地缘政治风险之间的联系是不稳定的。土耳其的不确定性既是俄罗斯地缘政治稳定的消极决定因素,也是积极决定因素,这取决于影响的时间范围。从中期来看,俄罗斯可以利用土耳其的积极影响。这可能会让投资者感到担忧,但也可能证明是有益的,因为由于土耳其的地缘政治不稳定,俄罗斯的地缘政治风险上升,他们不应该投资俄罗斯资产。此外,文献表明,俄罗斯能源金融市场对地缘政治不确定性没有影响。
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Spillovers Between Russia’s and Turkey’s Geopolitical Risk During the 2000–2021 Putin Administration
Abstract This paper sets out to explore the nexus between Russia and Turkey regarding their geopolitical uncertainty measures (GPR) during the Putin Administration era in Russia. The innovative Caldara and Iacoviello indices and the Vector Autoregressive (VAR) methodology are adopted. This study sheds light on the series of geopolitical events that have taken place in Russia and Turkey in recent decades. Empirical outcomes reveal that Turkish geopolitical uncertainty is a weak influencer that increases Russian GPR in the short-term while decreasing it in the medium-term. The reverse effect does not hold. The nexus between geopolitical risk in Turkey and Russia is found to be unstable. Uncertainty in Turkey constitutes both a negative and a positive determinant of geopolitical stability in Russia, depending on the time horizon of the impact. Russia could take advantage of Turkish positive effects in the medium-run. This could be alarming for investors but could also prove beneficial as they should not invest in Russian assets when the country’s geopolitical risk is elevated due to Turkey’s geopolitical instability. Additionally, it is documented that energy financial markets in Russia are not influential on geopolitical uncertainty.
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来源期刊
CiteScore
2.50
自引率
10.00%
发文量
13
期刊介绍: The journal accepts rigorous, non-technical papers especially in research methods in peace science, but also regular papers dealing with all aspects of the peace science field, from pure abstract theory to practical applied research. As a guide to topics: - Arms Control and International Security - Artificial Intelligence and Cognitive Studies - Behavioral Studies - Conflict Analysis and Management - Cooperation, Alliances and Games - Crises and War Studies - Critical Economic Aspects of the Global Crises - Deterrence Theory - Empirical and Historical Studies on the Causes of War - Game, Prospect and Related Theory - Harmony and Conflict - Hierarchy Theory
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