非中投资与增长纽带

Isaac Koomson-Abekah, Eugene Chinweokwu Nwaba
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引用次数: 9

摘要

目的本文旨在利用20多年的外国直接投资数据,对中非投资关系进行调查。在特定时期,尽管面临多重外部威胁,但非洲经济增长路径主要呈上升趋势。这一令人印象深刻的增长部分是由于整个区域外国直接投资存量的增长。本研究探讨了对非洲外国直接投资的各种来源,主要是中国的外国直接投资,以及它们如何影响非洲的宏观经济指标,即失业率、出口和进口活动。设计/方法论/方法Pesaran自回归分配滞后(ARDL)被用作检验指标的短期和长期关系的框架。格兰杰因果检验检验了增长和宏观经济指标之间的因果关系。发现中国的外国直接投资与非洲经济增长之间的联系在短期和长期内都呈现出负面/下降的影响。从长期来看,世界外国直接投资对经济增长的影响是显著的,但在短期内不是显著的。然而,美国对非洲的外国直接投资、中国对非洲的进出口对增长的影响微乎其微。没有证据表明奥肯定律,因为非洲失业率的下降不会增加经济增长。总体而言,中国流入非洲的外国直接投资被分配给劳动力就业能力较弱的资本密集型活动。格兰杰因果关系检验报告了增长与所有系列之间的单向联系,但人力资本在所有方向上都没有联系。尽管社会基础设施问题阻碍了该地区的增长,但如果更多的外国直接投资被引导到劳动密集型活动中,非洲经济可能会表现更好,因为这会减少失业率。研究局限性/含义该研究考虑了点年度外国直接投资数据,但没有累积存量,是一项基于宏观的研究,即区域经济。实际含义本文通过提供理解外国直接投资流入(尤其是中国)的实证依据,弥补了非洲投资绩效的文献空白。在吸引正确类型的投资的政策设计和实施中,这是一个有用的保护措施,以减少失业和促进增长。原创性/价值作者确认,这项研究尚未在其他地方发表,其他期刊也没有对其进行全部或部分考虑。
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Africa-China investment and growth link
PurposeThis paper aims to investigate China–Africa Investment link, using over two decades of FDI’s data. During the specified periods, African economic growth path has been predominantly upward trending, despite multiple external threats. This impressive growth was partly because of the growth of FDI stock across the region. This study explores the various sources of FDI to Africa, mainly China’s FDI’s and how they influence African macroeconomic indicators, i.e. unemployment, export and import activities.Design/methodology/approachPesaran autoregressive distributive lag (ARDL) is used as a framework to test the short-run and long-run relationship of indicators. Granger causality test checked the causality between growth and macroeconomic indicators.FindingsThe link between China’s FDI and African economic growth reported a negative/declining effect in both short and long run. In the long run, the effect of world FDI on growth was significant but not the in the short run. However, US FDI to Africa, China Export and Import from Africa reported an insignificant effect on growth. There was no evidence of Okun’s law, as a decrease in Africa unemployment does not increase growth. Overall, China’s FDI’s inflows to Africa are allocated to capital-intensive activities which has less labor employability. The Granger causality test reported a uni-directional link between growth and all series, except for human capital which experienced no link at all in all directions. Despite the issue of socio-infrastructure militating against growth in the region, African economy is likely to perform better, if more FDI’s are channeled into labor-intensive activities, because it has a reductive effect on unemployment.Research limitations/implicationsThe research considered point annual FDI data but not accumulated stock and is a macro-based study, i.e. regional economy.Practical implicationsThis paper bridged the literature gap in African investment performance by providing an empirical justification in understanding the inflow of FDI, especially China. This is a useful guard in policy design and implementations in the attraction of the right type of investment, so as to reduce unemployment and promote growth.Originality/valueThe authors confirm that this study has not been published elsewhere and is not under consideration in whole or in part by another journal.
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来源期刊
CiteScore
3.40
自引率
4.20%
发文量
17
期刊介绍: The Journal of Chinese Economic and Foreign Trade Studies (JCEFTS) negotiates China''s unique position within the international economy, and its interaction across the globe. From a truly international perspective, the journal publishes both qualitative and quantitative research in all areas of Chinese business and foreign trade, technical economics, business environment and business strategy. JCEFTS publishes high quality research papers, viewpoints, conceptual papers, case studies, literature reviews and general views. Emphasis is placed on the publication of articles which seek to link theory with application, or critically analyse real situations in terms of Chinese economics and business in China, with the objective of identifying good practice in these areas and assisting in the development of more appropriate arrangements for addressing crucial issues of Chinese economics and business. Papers accepted for publication will be double–blind peer-reviewed to ensure academic rigour and integrity.
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