Influence of model calibration and optimization techniques on the evaluation of thermal comfort and retrofit measures of a Lisbon household using building energy simulation

ABSTRACT The European Directive 2018/844 proposes 2050 as the year to stablish ‘a sustainable, (…) and decarbonized energy system’. The Directive points the way at the Member state level, proposing the improvement of the building stock, and the development of advisory tools to the building retrofit. This paper focused in the analysis of different inputs accuracy on the outputs of building energy simulation (BES) models, and its influence on thermal comfort and on the evaluation of retrofit solutions, concerning a Portuguese household. The methodology considered the comparison of different BES models considering three accuracy inputs levels. The first model considers default values from legislation and standards, the second considers detailed information from audit visits, and the third model considers the inputs defined after a calibration process using sensitivity analysis and optimization techniques. Furthermore, a retrofit analysis was performed by considering the multi-objective optimization of a surrogate model. From the calibration process, it was concluded that the thermal discomfort evaluation differs with the inputs’ accuracy. Moreover, the optimization suggests that the inputs’ accuracy also affects the optimal retrofit solutions. This approach helped to understand the influence of the inputs’ accuracy levels and the advantages of considering surrogate models to study residential retrofit.