管理层盈余预测的准确性和信息量:回顾与统一框架*

IF 1.6 Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE Accounting Perspectives Pub Date : 2022-03-08 DOI:10.1111/1911-3838.12294
Nicolai A. Preussner, Ewald Aschauer
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引用次数: 4

摘要

本文综合了有关管理层盈余预测和适应机制的文献,将现有理论整合到一个统一的框架中,并讨论了管理层盈余预测准确性和信息量的主要决定因素。提出的模型通过强调企业管理层、金融分析师和投资者之间的动态和多期互动来改进现有理论,从而简化了预测周期内复杂关系的评估。此外,我们还分析了金融分析师和投资者何时以及在多大程度上预测到偏见和误导性信息。总体而言,文献综述有力地支持了基金经理的程度和可信度与股票收益、股票流动性和分析师覆盖率之间的正相关关系。盈余预测倾向于乐观偏倚,与预测不确定性、盈余弹性、财务困境、投资者情绪、经理人薪酬对股价的依赖均呈正相关。企业成长、法律责任和诉讼风险与悲观预测显著相关。我们还发现,MF准确性随先前预测准确性、公司规模、分析师覆盖范围、分析师协议、管理层资格和公司治理水平而增加。此外,投资者没有充分预测到可预测预测偏差的程度,导致在盈利预测和实际盈利公布后,股价出现系统性波动。研究结果对研究人员、公司经理、投资者、金融分析师和监管机构都有重大意义。尽管管理者可以通过提供精确、捆绑和分类的预测来提高其预测的可信度,但外部利益相关者应该仔细分析预测的前提和特征,以评估预期MF偏差的方向和程度。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

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The Accuracy and Informativeness of Management Earnings Forecasts: A Review and Unifying Framework*

This paper synthesizes the literature on management earnings forecasts (MFs) and adaption mechanisms, combines existing theories into a unifying framework, and discusses the primary determinants of MF accuracy and informativeness. The proposed model refines existing theories by emphasizing the dynamics and multiperiod interactions among firm management, financial analysts, and investors, thereby simplifying the assessment of the complex relations within the forecast cycle. Furthermore, we analyze when and to what extent financial analysts and investors anticipate bias and misleading information. Overall, the literature review provides strong support for a positive correlation between the extent and credibility of MFs, on the one hand, and stock returns, share liquidity, and analyst coverage, on the other hand. Earnings forecasts tend to be optimistically biased, with a positive correlation with forecast uncertainty, earnings flexibility, financial distress, investor sentiment, and the share price dependency of managers' remuneration. Firm growth, legal liability, and litigation risk are significantly associated with forecast pessimism. We also find that MF accuracy increases with previous forecast accuracy, firm size, analyst coverage, analyst agreement, management qualifications, and corporate governance level. Moreover, investors do not anticipate the full extent of predictable forecast bias, leading to systematic share price drifts after the announcement of earnings forecasts and actual earnings. The study's results have substantial implications for researchers, firm managers, investors, financial analysts, and regulators. Although managers may enhance their forecasts' credibility by providing precise, bundled, and disaggregated forecasts, external stakeholders should carefully analyze forecast antecedents and characteristics to assess the direction and magnitude of expected MF bias.

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来源期刊
Accounting Perspectives
Accounting Perspectives BUSINESS, FINANCE-
CiteScore
2.60
自引率
0.00%
发文量
30
期刊介绍: Accounting Perspectives provides a forum for peer-reviewed applied research, analysis, synthesis and commentary on issues of interest to academics, practitioners, financial analysts, financial executives, regulators, accounting policy makers and accounting students. Articles are sought from academics and practitioners that address relevant issues in any and all areas of accounting and related fields, including financial accounting and reporting, auditing and other assurance services, management accounting and performance measurement, information systems and related technologies, tax policy and practice, professional ethics, accounting education, and related topics. Without limiting the generality of the foregoing.
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