Predictive model for early urosepsis prediction by using systemic inflammatory response syndrome after percutaneous nephrolithotomy

Abstract Objectives The aims of the study are to analyze the potential risk factors associated with systemic inflammatory response syndrome after percutaneous nephrolithotomy for renal stones and to establish a predictive model to prevent postoperative early urosepsis postoperative with percutaneous nephrolithotomy and develop a novel nomogram. Methods Patients who had undergone percutaneous nephrolithotomy between June 2012 and December 2019 were enrolled and classified into two groups according to their systemic inflammatory response status. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed to identify the predictive factors associated with systemic inflammatory response syndrome after percutaneous nephrolithotomy. The nomograms were developed by using the significant factors, and the discriminative ability was assessed using receiver operating characteristic curve analyses. Results Two hundred sixty two patients with renal stones treated with percutaneous nephrolithotomy were enrolled, and systemic inflammatory response syndrome occurred in 117 patients (44%) after percutaneous nephrolithotomy. Multivariable logistic regression analysis revealed that the three factors independently related to systemic inflammatory response syndrome: renal stone size ≥3 cm, positive preoperative urine white blood cells, and positive preoperative urine culture. According to the results, the logistic regression analyses of significant factors were used to develop the nomogram. Developed nomogram prediction model displayed favorable fitting in the Hosmer-Lemeshow test (P = 0.938). Internal validation of the nomogram showed that the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.702. Conclusions Positive preoperative urine white blood cells, positive urine culture, and renal stone size ≥3 cm are the most significant predictors. The novel nomogram helps identify high-risk individuals and facilitates the early detection of systemic inflammatory response syndrome after percutaneous nephrolithotomy.