How Will You Feel on Valentine's Day? Affective Forecasting and Recall Biases as a Function of Anxiety, Depression, and Borderline Personality Disorder Features.

Introduction: The prediction of affective experiences, also known as affective forecasting, is an integral component of individuals' decision-making processes. Yet, research consistently demonstrates that affective forecasts (AF) and recollections (AR) are generally inaccurate. Recent research has demonstrated distinct patterns of AF/R bias related to psychopathology. The present study examined the relationship between AF/R and features of Borderline Personality Disorder (BPD), anxiety, and depression using Valentine's Day as the target event.

Methods: Undergraduate students (N=263; 33% white; 63% female; M_age=19.08) predicted their affective states a week before, and then reported their actual affective states on Valentine's Day and the two days after, and recalled Valentine's Day affect two days later.

Results: Results indicate that higher BPD symptomatology predicted a significant overestimation of negative affect (B=.17, p=.02), even after controlling for anxiety and depression. Additionally, individuals' levels of depressive, anxious, and BPD symptomatology were significant predictors of AF of positive affect when entered into regression analyses separately, however when entered together, only depressive symptoms remained significant. Specifically, higher depressive symptoms predicted a significant underestimation of positive affect (B=-.21, p=.01).

Discussion: Results were in line with prior research indicating that unique patterns of AF biases are associated with symptoms of psychopathology. However, results failed to support prior research linking AR biases to symptoms of psychopathology. Implications for future studies of affective biases and psychopathology more generally are discussed.