Determinants of muscle density and clinical outcomes: Findings from the Hertfordshire Cohort Study.

PURPOSE The age-related loss of skeletal muscle mass and strength is associated with adverse health outcomes. However, to date, peripheral quantitative computed tomography (pQCT)-derived muscle density has been little studied. We used a well characterised cohort of older adults to identify lifestyle and anthropometric determinants of pQCT-derived muscle density measured 11 years later, and to report relationships between pQCT-derived muscle density with history of falls and prevalent fractures. METHODS A lifestyle questionnaire was administered to 197 men and 178 women, aged 59-70 at baseline. After a median of 11.5 (IQR 10.9, 12.3) years, pQCT (Stratec XCT2000) of the radius and tibia was performed to measure forearm muscle density (FMD) and calf muscle density (CMD). Presence of falls and fractures since the age of 45 were determined through participant recall; vertebral fractures were also ascertained through vertebral fracture assessment using iDXA. Total hip BMD (TH aBMD) was assessed using DXA. Baseline characteristics in relation to muscle density at follow-up were examined using linear regression; associations between muscle density and prior falls and fractures were investigated using logistic regression. All analyses were adjusted for sex and age. RESULTS Mean (SD) age at muscle density measurement was 76.3 (2.6) years. Mean (SD) FMD was 79.9 (3.1) and 77.2 (3.2) among males and females, respectively; CMD was 80.7 (2.6) and 78.5 (2.6) among males and females, respectively. Significant sex-differences in muscle density were observed at each site (p < 0.001). Female sex, lower weight, and lower body mass index were associated (p < 0.05) with both lower FMD and CMD. Additional correlates of lower CMD included older age and shorter stature. Lifestyle measures were not associated with muscle density in this cohort. Lower FMD was related to increased risk of previous fracture (OR (95 % CI) per SD lower FMD: 1.42 (1.07, 1.89), p = 0.015) but not after adjustment for TH aBMD (p > 0.08). No significant relationships were seen between muscle density and falls. CONCLUSION Female sex, older age, and lower BMI were associated with subsequent lower muscle density in older community-dwelling adults. Lower FMD was related to increased risk of previous fracture. Changes in muscle density over time might precede adverse outcomes such as falls and fractures and may be a long-term predictor of frailty. It could be also suggested that muscle density could be a more clinically meaningful surrogate of functional decline and disability than muscle size or mass, but more studies are needed to support this notion.