{"title":"在美国,评估食用传统和替代生产的肉鸡肉引起沙门氏菌病的风险","authors":"Chase E. Golden, Abhinav Mishra","doi":"10.1016/j.mran.2021.100160","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p><em>Salmonella</em> has long presented a major problem for the food safety of broiler meat. As the popularity of alternatively produced (e.g. organic) broiler meat increases, an understanding of the food safety risks associated with these types of products is needed. The purpose of this study was to develop a retail-to-consumption quantitative microbial risk assessment model that could be used to estimate the differences in risk of salmonellosis acquired from the consumption of conventionally and alternatively produced broiler meat in the United States annually. Data were extracted and used to define distributions that could be used to estimate <em>Salmonella</em> growth during retail storage, transportation, and home storage, as well as concentration changes during preparation and due to cross-contamination. A Monte Carlo simulation with 100,000 iterations was performed to estimate the risk of infection per serving and total number of infections in the United States annually from both meat types. Sensitivity analyses were performed to determine the factors that were highly correlated with increased risk of salmonellosis. Conventionally produced chicken meat was estimated to have a median risk of infection per serving of 6.4 <span><math><mo>×</mo></math></span> 10<sup>−8</sup> and cause an average of approximately 3,880,000 infections annually compared with a median risk of infection per serving of 7.7 <span><math><mo>×</mo></math></span> 10<sup>−8</sup> and average of approximately 641,000 estimated infections for alternatively produced chicken. The sensitivity analysis identified cross-contamination of hands during meal preparation as the most important factor linked to risk. The ‘what-if’ scenario analysis estimated that using antimicrobial soap during hand washing after handling raw chicken can reduce the risk considerably. The developed risk assessment model provides information on the public health risk of conventionally and alternatively produced broiler meat. These results will be useful in determining the key intervention strategies to mitigate the food safety risks associated with the consumption of contaminated chicken products.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48593,"journal":{"name":"Microbial Risk Analysis","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.0000,"publicationDate":"2021-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1016/j.mran.2021.100160","citationCount":"5","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Assessing the Risk of Salmonellosis from Consumption of Conventionally and Alternatively Produced Broiler Meat Prepared In-Home in the United States\",\"authors\":\"Chase E. Golden, Abhinav Mishra\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.mran.2021.100160\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><p><em>Salmonella</em> has long presented a major problem for the food safety of broiler meat. As the popularity of alternatively produced (e.g. organic) broiler meat increases, an understanding of the food safety risks associated with these types of products is needed. The purpose of this study was to develop a retail-to-consumption quantitative microbial risk assessment model that could be used to estimate the differences in risk of salmonellosis acquired from the consumption of conventionally and alternatively produced broiler meat in the United States annually. Data were extracted and used to define distributions that could be used to estimate <em>Salmonella</em> growth during retail storage, transportation, and home storage, as well as concentration changes during preparation and due to cross-contamination. A Monte Carlo simulation with 100,000 iterations was performed to estimate the risk of infection per serving and total number of infections in the United States annually from both meat types. Sensitivity analyses were performed to determine the factors that were highly correlated with increased risk of salmonellosis. Conventionally produced chicken meat was estimated to have a median risk of infection per serving of 6.4 <span><math><mo>×</mo></math></span> 10<sup>−8</sup> and cause an average of approximately 3,880,000 infections annually compared with a median risk of infection per serving of 7.7 <span><math><mo>×</mo></math></span> 10<sup>−8</sup> and average of approximately 641,000 estimated infections for alternatively produced chicken. The sensitivity analysis identified cross-contamination of hands during meal preparation as the most important factor linked to risk. The ‘what-if’ scenario analysis estimated that using antimicrobial soap during hand washing after handling raw chicken can reduce the risk considerably. The developed risk assessment model provides information on the public health risk of conventionally and alternatively produced broiler meat. These results will be useful in determining the key intervention strategies to mitigate the food safety risks associated with the consumption of contaminated chicken products.</p></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":48593,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Microbial Risk Analysis\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":3.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2021-08-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1016/j.mran.2021.100160\",\"citationCount\":\"5\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Microbial Risk Analysis\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"93\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2352352221000025\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"环境科学与生态学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Microbial Risk Analysis","FirstCategoryId":"93","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2352352221000025","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES","Score":null,"Total":0}
Assessing the Risk of Salmonellosis from Consumption of Conventionally and Alternatively Produced Broiler Meat Prepared In-Home in the United States
Salmonella has long presented a major problem for the food safety of broiler meat. As the popularity of alternatively produced (e.g. organic) broiler meat increases, an understanding of the food safety risks associated with these types of products is needed. The purpose of this study was to develop a retail-to-consumption quantitative microbial risk assessment model that could be used to estimate the differences in risk of salmonellosis acquired from the consumption of conventionally and alternatively produced broiler meat in the United States annually. Data were extracted and used to define distributions that could be used to estimate Salmonella growth during retail storage, transportation, and home storage, as well as concentration changes during preparation and due to cross-contamination. A Monte Carlo simulation with 100,000 iterations was performed to estimate the risk of infection per serving and total number of infections in the United States annually from both meat types. Sensitivity analyses were performed to determine the factors that were highly correlated with increased risk of salmonellosis. Conventionally produced chicken meat was estimated to have a median risk of infection per serving of 6.4 10−8 and cause an average of approximately 3,880,000 infections annually compared with a median risk of infection per serving of 7.7 10−8 and average of approximately 641,000 estimated infections for alternatively produced chicken. The sensitivity analysis identified cross-contamination of hands during meal preparation as the most important factor linked to risk. The ‘what-if’ scenario analysis estimated that using antimicrobial soap during hand washing after handling raw chicken can reduce the risk considerably. The developed risk assessment model provides information on the public health risk of conventionally and alternatively produced broiler meat. These results will be useful in determining the key intervention strategies to mitigate the food safety risks associated with the consumption of contaminated chicken products.
期刊介绍:
The journal Microbial Risk Analysis accepts articles dealing with the study of risk analysis applied to microbial hazards. Manuscripts should at least cover any of the components of risk assessment (risk characterization, exposure assessment, etc.), risk management and/or risk communication in any microbiology field (clinical, environmental, food, veterinary, etc.). This journal also accepts article dealing with predictive microbiology, quantitative microbial ecology, mathematical modeling, risk studies applied to microbial ecology, quantitative microbiology for epidemiological studies, statistical methods applied to microbiology, and laws and regulatory policies aimed at lessening the risk of microbial hazards. Work focusing on risk studies of viruses, parasites, microbial toxins, antimicrobial resistant organisms, genetically modified organisms (GMOs), and recombinant DNA products are also acceptable.