气候变化对玉米(Zea mays L.)产量的影响:基于作物模拟和统计降尺度模型

Charles Bwalya Chisanga, E. Phiri, V. Chinene
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引用次数: 16

摘要

讨论了使用全球气候模型(GCM)、统计降尺度和作物模拟(APSIM玉米和CERES玉米模型)模型对气候变化对玉米产量影响的相关文献综述。GCM可以模拟当前和未来的气候情景。使用作物模型进行的作物产量预测需要比全球气候模型提供的空间分辨率更高的气候投入。计算成本低廉的统计降尺度技术被广泛用于这种翻译。区域气候建模研究主要集中在南部非洲和西非,很少在赞比亚进行研究。此外,与世界其他地区相比,综合使用气候和作物模型在非洲受到的关注相对较少。相反,AgMIP议定书已在撒哈拉以南非洲(埃塞俄比亚、肯尼亚、坦桑尼亚、乌干达和南非)和南亚(斯里兰卡)实施。然而,在赞比亚,这些议定书没有在区域或地方范围内实施。应用作物和统计降尺度模型需要校准和验证,这些对于正确的气候和作物模拟至关重要。审查表明,尽管模型和参数、土壤、气候和管理方案的设计存在不确定性,但气候将对SSA的玉米产量产生不利影响。气候变化对玉米生产的潜在影响可以使用作物模型进行研究,如农业生产模拟器(APSIM)和农业技术决策支持系统(DSSAT)模型。有必要使用综合评估模型来研究未来气候对玉米产量的影响。这一评估对于粮食安全的长期规划以及制定应对气候变异和变化的适应和缓解战略至关重要。关键词:综述,AgMIP,气候情景,气候变化,可变性,作物模拟模型,偏差校正,动态降尺度,全球气候模型,统计降尺度。
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Climate change impact on maize (Zea mays L.) yield using crop simulation and statistical downscaling models: A review
Review of literature related to the impact of climate change on maize (Zea mays L.) yield using Global Climate Models (GCMs), statistical downscaling, and crop simulation (APSIM-maize-and-CERES-maize models) models are discussed. GCMs can simulate the current and future climatic scenarios. Crop yield projections using crop models require climate inputs at higher spatial resolution than that provided by GCMs. The computationally inexpensive statistical downscaling technique is widely used for this translation. Studies on regional climate modeling have mostly focused on Southern Africa and West Africa, with very few studies in Zambia. Additionally, the integrated use of climate and crop models have received relatively less attention in Africa compared to other parts of the world. Conversely, the AgMIP protocols have been implemented in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) (Ethiopia, Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda and South Africa) and South Asia (SA) (Sri Lanka). In Zambia, however, the protocols have not been applied at either regional or local scale. Applying crop and statistical downscaling models requires calibration and validation, and these are crucial for correct climate and crop simulation. The review shows that although uncertainties exist in the design of models, and parameters, soil, climate and management options, the climate would adversely affect maize yield production in SSA. The potential effect of climate change on maize production can be studied using crop models such as agricultural production simulator (APSIM) and decision support system for agrotechnology (DSSAT) models. There is need to use integrated assessment modeling to study future climate impact on maize yield. The assessment is essential for long-term planning in food security and in developing adaptation and mitigation strategies in the face of climate variability and change.   Key words: Review, AgMIP, climate scenario, climate change, variability, crop simulation model, bias correction, dynamical downscaling, Global Climate Model (GCM), statistical downscaling.
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来源期刊
Scientific Research and Essays
Scientific Research and Essays 综合性期刊-综合性期刊
自引率
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发文量
6
审稿时长
3.3 months
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