基于可变可再生能源的全球净零能源系统的临时详细建模与分析

IF 5.8 Q2 ENERGY & FUELS Energy and climate change Pub Date : 2023-04-25 DOI:10.1016/j.egycc.2023.100108
Takashi OTSUKI , Ryoichi KOMIYAMA , Yasumasa FUJII , Hiroko NAKAMURA
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本研究新开发了一种递归动态全球能源模型,具有电力和氢平衡的小时时间分辨率,旨在评估可变可再生能源(VRE)在碳中和世界中的作用。该模型采用大规模线性规划模型(变量和约束各为5亿),计算了到2050年100个地区的能源供应情况。详细的时间分辨率使模型能够纳入VRE的可变输出和系统集成选项,例如电池,水电解,缩减和电池电动汽车的灵活充电。优化结果表明,结合适合当地能源情况的各种技术选择对于经济有效地减少全球二氧化碳排放至关重要。除了VRE,配备ccs的燃气和生物质发电厂也对脱碳电力供应做出了很大贡献。在具有成本效益的情况下,2050年VRE在全球发电中的份额估计为57%。这一结果也暗示了100%基于可再生能源的能源系统面临的经济挑战。例如,在具有成本效益的情况下,2050年的平均减排成本为69美元/吨二氧化碳,而在100%可再生的情况下,这一成本增加到139美元/吨二氧化碳。这一论点的稳健性通过敏感性分析得到了检验。
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Temporally detailed modeling and analysis of global net zero energy systems focusing on variable renewable energy

This study newly develops a recursive-dynamic global energy model with an hourly temporal resolution for electricity and hydrogen balances, aiming to assess the role of variable renewable energy (VRE) in a carbon-neutral world. This model, formulated as a large-scale linear programming model (with 500 million each of variables and constraints), calculates the energy supply for 100 regions by 2050. The detailed temporal resolution enables the model to incorporate the variable output of VRE and system integration options, such as batteries, water electrolysis, curtailment, and the flexible charging of battery electric vehicles. Optimization results suggest that combing various technical options suitable for local energy situations is critical to reducing global CO2 emissions cost-effectively. Not only VRE but also CCS-equipped gas-fired and biomass-fired power plants largely contribute to decarbonizing power supply. The share of VRE in global power generation in 2050 is estimated to be 57% in a cost-effective case. The results also imply economic challenges for an energy system based on 100% renewable energy. For example, the average mitigation cost in 2050 is 69USD/tCO2 in the cost-effective case, while it increases to 139USD/tCO2 in the 100% renewable case. The robustness of this argument is tested by sensitivity analyses.

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来源期刊
Energy and climate change
Energy and climate change Global and Planetary Change, Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment, Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law
CiteScore
7.90
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0.00%
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0
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